EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 4/20/11

Published on: 21:53PM Apr 20, 2011
It was a large turnaround for grains today with new crop corn taking a major setback after making new highs.  May corn finished 16 ¼ cents lower at $7.32 ¾ and December corn finished 20 ½ cents lower at $6.55 ½.  Soybeans held support but traded well of the highs at 15 ¾ cents higher in the May contract.  November beans finished 12 cents higher at $13.66.  May Chicago wheat finished ¾ of a cent lower at $7.85.
We started out the day strong with most commodities sharply higher and the US dollar lower.  The weekly Ethanol Production Report was surprisingly negative down 42 thousand barrels a day vs last week.  This put a little pressure on the corn market but the larger break came after the Mid-day weather model took some moisture out of the 11-14 day range.  Once the market turned below yesterday's lows stops were triggered and we were sharply lower.  Wheat and soybeans followed corn's weakness and came off their highs.  Inter-commodity spreading was also part of the reason beans kept strong and corn sold off as many traders were exiting that spread.
This setback in December corn completes a key reversal and may attract more technical sell pressure.  If the forecast continues to come in more favorable we could see a much larger setback than the one today.
Weekly export sales expectations for tomorrow morning (in 1000 MTs):
Corn:              800 - 1,100
Wheat:           400 - 800
Beans:           200 - 400
Tomorrow is option expiration day for May grain options.  Friday the markets will be closed for the holiday.  If you would like to go over your current sales/positions please be sure to check with your broker before things get too busy in the coming weeks.


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