EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 4/25/11

Published on: 18:41PM Apr 25, 2011

Wet and cold weather has put corn back near the highs again.  May corn finished 25 ¼ cents higher at $7.62 ½, May beans finished 9 cents higher at $13.89 ½, and May wheat finished 26 ½ cents higher at $8.26.
The market is still watching the forecast and planting progress reports very closely for direction.  Just like last week, when the extended forecast improves we could see a quick drop from profit taking.  Currently we are at 9 percent planted for corn and 6 percent planted in spring wheat.  The average estimate for corn's planting progress was at 13% so the market may view this as favorable on tonight's session since we came in below expectations.  The 5 year average planting pace for corn at this time is 23 percent and 25 percent for spring wheat.
The winter wheat crop condition has continued to come in poorly.  This week the very poor category gained 2 percent taking away from average/good.  The KC contract was up 26 ½ cents today.  May KC Wheat has now rallied a dollar since April 15th and continued crop deterioration has fueled the fire.
Tuesday morning at 7:30am Stats Canada will release their planted acreage report. The expectations are to see an increase in overall acreage from last year. 
For now we will be watching the forecast for any major changes.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more upside potential until the weather turns.  The Fed is hosting a news conference on Wednesday afternoon and may create some volatility in the outside markets.  This is something to watch but weather will still be the most likely market mover.



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