EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/17/10

Published on: 15:50PM Aug 17, 2010

Corn and soybeans had a two-sided trade today before finishing sharply higher. This morning wheat opened up sharply higher before reversing and trading towards the lows at the end of the day. December wheat finished down 12 ½ cents at $6.83 ¾.

The USDA announced the sales of 110,000 MTs of US soybeans to an unknown buyer for 2010-11 delivery and 121,920 MTs of US corn to Japan for 2010-11 delivery.

SDS is starting to pop up pretty heavily over the wettest sections of Iowa and Illinois. This news helped rally soybean futures late in the day. It is still too early to tell how bad the situation actually is. Pro Farmer information has started to flow in. So far for Indiana pod counts are 15% above a year ago, and corn yields are down 3% last year. We will continue to monitor the information coming out of the fields.

When talking with producers we continue to hear more and more stories of variability in the corn crop. There are fields that have the potential to bring back record yields and also fields that may be below trend-line.

The question is how long can the funds keep this buying up heading into harvest? They continue to hold massive long positions and against the normal seasonal trend. We do think the new crop corn still has to buy acres but the problem is the timing, it might not be a buy until after harvest.

For those producers that need to get caught up on sales please call your broker to discuss current strategies.

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