EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 8/18/10

Published on: 14:58PM Aug 18, 2010

Corn and wheat were able to finish higher today while beans settled 11 ¼ cents lower in the November contract at $10.30 ¾. The December corn contract settled the day 3 ¼ higher at $4.33 ¼. Lastly the December Chicago wheat contract settled 5 cents higher at $6.88 ¾. Tomorrow morning at 7:30 am the USDA will release weekly export sales for corn, wheat, and beans. The estimates for corn sales are between 1,200,000mt- 2,300,000mt. Soybeans sales are estimated to be between 1,200,000mt - 2,500,000mt. Wheat sales are estimated to be between 800,000mt - 1,350,000mt. We will release all of the sales numbers in tomorrow mornings EHedger morning commentaries.

This morning the USDA announced the sale of 240,000mt of US corn to Egypt for 2010-2011 delivery.

SDS is starting to pop up pretty heavily over the wettest sections of Iowa and Illinois. It is still too early to tell how bad the situation actually is. Pro Farmer information has started to flow in. So far for Indiana pod counts are 15% above a year ago, and corn yields are down 3% from last year. Today they reported higher corn yields in Illinois. They went on to say that there are signs of crop stress in corn/soybeans from the high temps in recent weeks but pod counts are in-line with last year and the 3-year average (Illinois.) We will continue to monitor the information coming out of the fields.

When talking with producers we continue to hear more and more stories of variability in the corn crop. There are fields that have the potential to bring back record yields and also fields that may be below trend-line.

The question is how long can the funds keep this buying up heading into harvest? They continue to hold massive long positions and against the normal seasonal trend. We do think the new crop corn still has to buy acres but the problem is the timing, it might not be a buy until after harvest.

For those producers that need to get caught up on sales please call your broker to discuss current strategies.


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