EHedger Evening Grain Commentary

It was a rough start to the week for the grain markets as corn, soybeans, and wheat all finished sharply lower. Poor economic data out of China caused their markets to trade lower and we then saw follow through selling by morning in the US grain markets. The real story of the day however was the massive sell-off in gold and crude oil. There have been numerous reports since Friday that the country of Cyrus is being forced to liquidate their gold holdings in order to help fund the country’s massive bailout. This situation has caused investors to wonder if there will be more countries in similar situations in the near future.

This morning’s export inspections were extremely disappointing for soybeans at 4.81 million bushels when the trade was looking for 14.5 million bushels. Corn exports were a little better than expected at 14.70 million bushels and wheat was below the trade estimates at 23.47 million bushels.

NOPA crush was also released this morning and contributed to the sell-off in the soybean market as the crush was reported to be 137.08 million bushels when the trade was looking for closer to 140 million bushels.

Today’s weather reports were mixed with the morning run showing a warmer dryer pattern for the majority of the corn-belt for next week’s time frame followed by a slightly wetter pattern during the mid-day. We will continue to pass along any updates as we closely monitor the weather situation as it pertains to planting progress.

Corn is now 2 percent planted which is being the average pace of 6% (average of 1986-2012 planting at this time of year).  Traders were looking for 4-5 percent planted which may be slightly supportive on the overnight session. Winter wheat conditions were left unchanged from last week.

There was a gap fill in November soybeans going all the way back to June 2012.  With the $12.00 psychological level so close, we may see some support near here. If we don’t see that $12.00 level hold, it could be that next "resistance" point where heavy hedge pressure is found.  Have a great week and please call if you have any questions!

November 2013 Soybeans

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