It was a rather weak close especially for soybeans as they made their day session lows in the final minute of trading. March beans closed down 12 ½ cents at $11.96 ½, March corn unchanged, and March wheat down 4 ½ cents at $6.24 ¾.
Poor export sales this morning was the first thing to take grains off their overnight strength. After a choppy, 2 sided trade they finished weaker. Sales were below the average trade guesses for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Informa also released their production estimates today. Their estimates came in at 12.337 for corn and 3.078 for soybeans. Both of these estimates are slightly higher than the latest USDA’s estimates. They did however lower world corn production 5 ½ million MTs due to lowering estimated yields in South America.
South American weather was left mostly unchanged today. They are still expecting favorable rains early next week with hot and dry conditions until then. The extended forecast (low confidence) is putting some light rain chances out past 2 weeks.
Employment numbers were favorable this morning but the stock market couldn’t seem to hold onto any rallies and didn’t help grains any. The Dollar was higher for most of the day as well. With so much uncertainty in Iran, weather problems in South America, and a large report out next Thursday, the market may continue to hold support until we get more confirmation about the crop size. This actually puts additional importance on the report.
Report estimates are as follows (source Reuters Poll):
Production range: 12.165 – 12.375
Average guess: 12.265 with a 146.163 yield
December USDA: 12.310
Production range: 3.010 – 3.200
Average guess: 3.048 with a 41.358 yield
December USDA: 3.046
We will have more updates for you as we get closer to the report. Have a great weekend!
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