Grains Choppy Ahead of the Weekend

Published on: 15:58PM Jul 19, 2013

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December corn finished the day unchanged at $5.00 ¾, November soybeans 8 ¼ higher at $12.74, and September wheat 4 cents higher at $6.64 ½.  August soybeans made a new high for the move at $14.92 ¾ today.  The tightness of old crop soybeans continues to be the main supporting factor for the entire complex including the November contract.  This has been part the reason the new crop corn to soybean ratio has been so strong.  Today’s midday weather forecast took some rain out of the forecast for IA/NE which was also supportive for prices.

Today’s Commitment of Traders report shows that the managed money is still net short corn although they have lightened up that position by almost 20,000 contracts over the course of a week.  The other large (reportable) traders were liquidating some of their net long position and the non-reportable trader added to the net short position.  The managed money is long soybeans and adding to the position.  They are net long 124,432 contracts of soybeans using futures/options combined.  They added about 25,000 contracts between Wednesday 10th – Tuesday 16th.  The managed money went from a large net long position in corn to a net short position this year, yet they are still very long soybeans.  It fits perfectly with the fact that soybeans have been holding more support than corn during that time frame as the corn – bean ratio clearly shows.  With a sizable position held by the funds we could see some large swings in the opposite direction once they decide to liquidate.  That would be something to watch out for if we start out August with good weather and a good forecast.  Monday we will have crop ratings after the close.  Otherwise weather will be the main thing to watch for price action.  Have a great weekend!

November Soybeans/December CornNovember Soybeans/December Corn

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