Monday's Grain Market Recap 11-28-11

Published on: 16:18PM Nov 28, 2011

Corn, soybeans, and wheat all finished stronger. Beans lead the way finishing 14 ½ cents higher at $11.21 (January). Corn finished 9 ¼ cents higher at $5.91 ¾ (December) and wheat ¼ cent higher at $5.74 ¾ (December).

Outside markets were once again affecting grains this time giving them some support.  With the Dow Jones futures up over 300 points and the US Dollar down over 750 the markets were easily supported.  Export inspections were in-line with expectations and weren’t a major market mover.  Grains were just a little overcooked to the downside and have come off of oversold levels.

The Commitment of Traders report was delayed until today due to the holiday last week.  The results show the Managed Money reducing their net long corn position by 48,543 contracts!  They increased their net short wheat position by 13,730 contracts, and went from net long to net short in the soybeans on a 18,756 position swing. So obviously from Tuesday November 15th until Tuesday November 22nd there was a big negative net change for the Managed Money using futures/options.  In that same Tuesday-Tuesday timeframe we dropped 46 ½ cents in December corn,  47 ¼ cents in January soybeans, and 38 ¾ cents in December wheat.

The other report that was out today was the Weekly Crop Progress.  This showed a gain in the Winter Wheat crop condition from 50% to 52% in the good-excellent category.

Even though we are coming off of oversold levels we remain with our bearish stance for grains.  We still feel corn/wheat are overpriced and until the world burns through its supply of wheat corn is going to have a hard time sustaining any rallies.  Soybeans are well oversold and off of their moving averages by quite a bit.  Unless there are any weather problems in South America it may be hard for soybeans to sustain any rallies as well.  First notice day for December futures is on Wednesday November 30th for the following: December Corn, Wheat, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Oats, Treasuries, and Metals.

Please call EHedger if you would like to discuss developing a marketing strategy for 2012. Our grain marketing software can help you discover your risk based on your current strategy and help you make marketing decisions going forward.  Have a great week!

Chart: December Corn

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