Old crop corn fell to new lows for the move Thursday on more liquidation. Wheat was supported on more rumors of Chinese purchasing while soybeans closed lower on heavy bear spreading and bird-flu worries. There are no changes to our market outlook.
Although wheat held better support than corn and soybeans, we still haven’t seen confirmation of those rumored export sales that keep popping up in the headlines. There were no 8am sale announcements again and the weekly wheat sales were less than anticipated. That doesn’t mean we aren’t going to see additional exports, especially with the competitive price, I am just pointing out that this could be more "headline chasing". The bird flu story is still the main headline for soybean/soymeal weakness.
Old crop corn looks very bearish on the chart and that underwater long position held by the managed money could still lead the way to further liquidation and downside pressure for corn. Any strength we have seen so far has quickly been sold. We still haven’t had any USDA sale announcements since the large setback in prices. The market has done its job rationing and now we are possibly looking at a 900 million to 1 billion bushel corn carryout this year. What’s bearish for old crop is also bearish for new crop, especially with 97.28 million acres of corn expected this year. For now we will have to watch the Commitment of Traders report for fund position trends as well as the 14 day outlook as any favorable planting weather could add to the weakness or vice-versa should there be delays. Have a great Friday and weekend!
May Corn-May Wheat Spread
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