Strong Planting Progress Means Lower Corn Prices

Grains and oilseeds settled mixed awaiting the planting progress report.  The bearspreading in corn left the July contract down 3 ¼ cents while December corn was up ¾ of a cent.  Soybeans had the opposite, heavy bullspreading brought July soybeans up 16 cents while November finished 3 ¼ cents lower.  That makes a new high for the year in the July – November soybean spread. 

After the grain markets closed, the USDA released their weekly crop progress report.  Corn is now 71% planted which is well above the average analyst estimate of 60-65%.  Tonight’s market should be a rather weak open for corn with the potential for a gap lower.  The first downside target is the 2012 low of $5.11.

Soybean plantings are now 24% which is still below the 5 year average of 42%.  July soybeans continue to trend higher from old crop soybean tightness.  Meal has been leading the way.  There are rumors of more cargoes getting shipped from South America into the US but overall the futures market doesn’t seem to care.

Winter wheat conditions were down another point from last week at 31% good-to-excellent.  Spring wheat is 67% planted compared to 76% on average.  Wheat will likely follow corn’s lead during the overnight markets.

We still have a lot of year left but with corn plantings basically caught up and the soil moisture levels recharged we still believe the long term price trend will be lower.  For now we want to stay the course with an emphasis on downside protection hedges.  If you would like to receive the EHedger grain commentary including complete hedge recommendations, please sign up using the link.