Grains finished near unchanged after trading both sides of the market. March beans were down a penny, March wheat down 2, and March corn unchanged.
The weather forecast in South America was left mostly unchanged. The lack of fresh news is keeping us at current levels and the market is waiting to see what Thursday’s report says.
Looking at the most recent Commitment of Traders report, we can see that the "Managed Money" is net short 27,097 contracts of Chicago wheat, net long 192,500 of corn, and net long 33,020 contracts of soybeans. This is still an especially large net long position in corn and all the more reason to make sure as a producer you have adequate DOWNSIDE coverage if the reports were to come out bearish. The reports will be the best indication for direction to start the year and has caused significant market swings in the past.
I have included the market expectations below. If there are any surprises on the stocks data, our thought is that it will be on the amount of wheat being fed, or the rationing of corn demand from these high prices.
Report estimates are as follows (source Reuters):
Production range: 12.165 - 12.375
Average guess: 12.265 with a 146.163 yield
December USDA: 12.310
Production range: 3.010 - 3.200
Average guess: 3.048 with a 41.358 yield
December USDA: 3.046
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Previewing Thursday's USDA Report