Wednesday's Grain Recap 12/15/12

Published on: 15:30PM Dec 15, 2011

Grains finished mixed with corn/wheat lower and soybeans higher.  The outsides were mixed with crude oil lower and equities higher.  The main reason for the spike in beans could have just been some unwinding of the long corn, short bean spreads. 

The COT report shows the managed money net short beans and wheat, while corn is the one market they are still largely net long.  If they liquidate it may be the price of corn that continues to suffer the most.

Weekly export sales report for grains from this morning:

                                          Estimated                                                            Actual

Corn                                  400,000 – 600,000 MTs                                   506,900 MTs

Wheat                                300,000 – 400,000 MTs                                   318,400 MTs

Soybeans                           400,000 – 600,000 MTs                                   468,600 MTs

Today’s settlement in March corn was the lowest since March 2011, and we are just coming off the lowest January 12 bean settlement since October 2011!  This is all happening as we are hitting the lowest level the Euro Currency has been since January.  Obviously the currency moves have played a part in this just as the higher than "originally expected" supply is playing a part as well.  With the world corn and wheat carryout going up on the last USDA report, market participants seem to be more comfortable lifting longs and going short.  We still feel that there is considerable downside risk in these markets between now and that March timeframe when the Federal Crop Insurance price levels are set.

South American weather was slightly changed at midday with more favorable conditions for Argentina than originally projected.  There are still areas of drying but for the most part Argentina and Brazil have favorable conditions for crop development at this time.

Please feel free to call an EHedger risk management specialist if you would like a second opinion on your marketing strategy and how we may be able to help. You may also sign up for a free trial of our research using the link below:

Chart: March Corn

Red-50 day Blue-100 day Grey-200 day

Best Regards,



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