Published on: 17:38PM Sep 15, 2009
Today’s opening was quiet after project (A) higher move. Then something happened, the market stopped going down and started to hit overhead stops. It was almost like a bullish tidal wave swept over the market causing stop loss orders to be filled. The market was actually lock limit up in corn!
Why all the excitement? Yesterday’s concern about frost for the northern Corn Belt has shifted from a minor concern to a potential building major event for yield loss. The common numbers being thrown around the trade is about a 10% loss, early estimates would suggest a 33 million loss potential. Or more specifically, it would stop the concern about the big crop, getting bigger!
Is today’s 30-cent move in corn and 65-cents in soybeans justified the start of a new bull move like we saw in the fall of 2006 and fall of 2007? Or is it just a rally to scare out the bears and get the bulls long before harvest pressure starts?
I strongly believe this is a bull trap! This rally is exactly what all unpriced sellers have been waiting for. If you don’t take advantage of the rally we believe you are taking a rather big risk of putting the corn in the bin unpriced and hoping for $4 plus cash corn and $10 plus beans.
LONG LIVE THE BEAR! I’M SHORT AND HOPING FOR MARGIN CALLS SO I CAN SELL MORE INVENTORY AT PROFITABLE LEVELS.
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