Published on: 14:20PM Mar 03, 2010
Today’s rally has helped lift everyone’s spirits. You can almost hear the bulls panting waiting for a bullish report next week so they can jump into the corn and soybean markets and lift them to the heavens. Their argument is: "let’s face facts, it’s March and there is snow on the ground, planters will want to move in less than three weeks, and nothing is going to get planted on time."
My objective is to get producers to sell their crop; I hope the market can catch this bullish attitude and indeed push prices back to the pre-January report highs. If this would happen, based on USDA cost data, U.S. producers should be offered a profit level that has only been exceed by the 2008 and 2009 price events that I believe were an exception rather than the rule.
Conclusion: Let’s now hope that we get a bullish report next week and everyone gets bullish about spring weather. It will give producers a great chance to make “catch-up” sales at levels that we all know present an excellent selling price for expected 2010 corn and soybean inventory.
Contracts being monitored for input cost control: The 10-year T-Notes remain firm in the March contract right under 119. I still suggest this is the last strong drive up for all interest rate instruments. Focus on being a scale-up seller from this point forward. The big problem I see now is what happens when the March contract goes off the board. There is already an exceptional difference between the lead month and deferred contracts.
May natural gas has stabilized at a price decline that started back in December. While this may be the low, I am in no real hurry to suggest buying before the seasonal low time period in the summer months. Again, remember buying natural gas is used to offset future nitrogen cost exposure. The objective right now is $4 or lower, if possible.
BEFORE TRADING, ONE SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WITH POTENTIAL PROFITS THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOSSES, WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE. YOU SHOULD READ THE “RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND “OPTION DISCLOSURE STATEMENT” AND SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS BEFORE TRADING. COMMODITY TRADING MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR RECIPIENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION. THOSE ACTING ON THIS INFORMATION ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN ACTIONS. ALTHOUGH EVERY REASONABLE ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ENSURE THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS. ANY REPUBLICATION OR OTHER USE OF THIS INFORMATION AND THOUGHTS EXPRESSED HEREIN WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. COPYRIGHT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES INC. 2010.
1949 Minneapolis Moline U
What will be "new" in March 10 Crop Production update?