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Let's Look at the Charts

Published on: 13:40PM Mar 13, 2014

The markets are mixed this week with uncertainty in the outside markets, weather outlooks showing the potential for a cooler spring and a neutral to mixed USDA Supply/Demand report that came out on Monday. In a nutshell the markets are in transition and the funds are coming back into the commodity markets with the uncertainty in the financial markets. We are beginning to see wider daily moves in the market but if you look at the charts we are still somewhat range bound. For producers who have done nothing and are waiting to have the crop in the ground, it looks like you may have an opportunity to sell at higher prices and for those who have already sold management and risk protection will be the goal for the next several months.

So let’s take a look at the December 2014 corn chart. Slow stochastic is telling us the market is overbought but it could see a retracement back to the $5 level making a double-top in December corn. A move above $5 would give the market the opportunity to move back to the September 3rd high of $5.25. We believe it would have to take delayed planting or slow emergence in order for December corn to move to that level. A move below 50% retracement would give the market an opportunity to revisit the January 10th low of $4.35.
 

December 2014 Daily Corn Chart

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.
 

November soybeans are way over bought and the fact that it cannot move above last week’s high of $11.9775 is a bearish signal and a reason to be concerned. A move below $11.55 would give the market the opportunity to move back to the $11.30 level. One must also be careful of the March Prospective Planting report out at the end of the month. If increased acreage is more than trade expectations, look for soybeans to move back to the lows below $11.

November 2014 Daily Soybean Chart

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.


Once again July wheat is also way over bought and it seems the daily range is growing. Wheat is moving on rumors as well as outside markets; i.e. the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine and weather. A move above the $7 level would give the opportunity to move back to the $7.50 while a move below 38% retracement would allow the market to move back to the old lows. Make sure to take advantage of these levels before warm weather and field work will be in the fore front instead of the markets.

July 2014 Daily Wheat Chart

SOURCE: CME Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to laura@utterbackmarketing.com or utterback@utterbackmarketing.com.
 

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