For the month of February, the November Soybean contract has seen an 18-day uptrend or a 51-cent move in the market. Many of us would have to say today’s close surprised us and will be wondering if it is a trend reversal or not. I still believe there are many factors driving soybeans such as weather in South America, the fact that many producers in Argentina have realized there may be more opportunities in the future to sell their soybeans if they store instead of selling off the combine, and the fact that we are coming into March and at these levels some producers may want to switch to beans.
Today the market broke through resistance at $11.74 and went as high as $11.82 clearing showing strength but in the last 15 minutes of trade, the market was back at $11.682 where it opened on the day. End of the month profit-taking and squaring off positions left the November soybean contract at $11.555 when it settled.
Now one must decide if November soybeans could have one more bounce prior to the March Prospective Planting Report or have we already bought 2 to 3 million acres at these levels? With the USDA projecting the on farm price of $9.75 at harvest, I would suggest decisions need to be made as to what price and when to sell soybeans.
November 2014 Soybeans
SOURCE: UMS Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although very reasonable attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, Utterback Marketing Services Inc. assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.
If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to [email protected] or [email protected].
THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A SALES OR TRADING EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. AND IS, OR IS IN THE NATURE OF A SOLICITATION. THIS MATERIAL IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT PREPARED BY UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BY ACCEPTING THIS COMMUNICATION, YOU AGREE THAT YOU ARE AN EXPERIENCED USER OF THE FUTURES MARKETS, CAPABLE OF MAKING INDEPENDENT TRADING DECISIONS, AND AGREE THAT YOU ARE NOT, AND WILL NOT, RELY SOLELY ON THIS COMMUNICATION IN MAKING TRADING DECISIONS.
DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.