Drought in the South

Published on: 09:22AM Mar 27, 2009

We talked to some producers in RS (Southern Brazil) and they are very worried with current drought. Has 15 days without rains, and forecasts doesn’t show any change until April 8th. RS was expected to produce 7.000 ktons, and we calculate it can reach near 5.000 kton, as beans are now in the filling stage.
Same situation happens in Argentina, but for a bigger area. It’s worst there ‘because they have some late planting in many areas. Can’t tell how much should they loose, but surely more than 2.000ktons.
In the other hand, in the CW region of Brazil, harvesting can slow down due too much rain. But, indeed, harvesting is advanced there.
Basis started to level up again here to +55¢/bu over CBOT. Paranaguá port reference.