This report was sent to subscribers on 12/9/09 5:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 12/10/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
After the close on 12/10/09: My resistance was 3.97, just .01 from the actual high, and my pivot acted as support and was 3.80 1/4, just .00 1/2 from the actual low.
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3.97 200 Day moving average 3.90 1/2 --------------3.80 1/4 Pivot 3.70 3.66 1/4 XX Stops Below Trend 5 day chart....….…. Down Daily chart ……….Sideways Weekly chart …….. Down Monthly chart ….... Down $3.97 is the 200 day ma ATR 12 1/4 Extremely Oversold 10%
I said "Green uptrend line is resistance now, downtrend line near $3.70 is now support".
3.97 200 Day moving average
--------------3.80 1/4 Pivot
3.66 1/4 XX Stops Below
5 day chart....….…. Down
Daily chart ……….Sideways
Weekly chart …….. Down
Monthly chart ….... Down $3.97 is the 200 day ma
ATR 12 1/4 Extremely Oversold 10%
March Corn for 12/10/09
I have always said, "I do not care what the reason the market gets to a location on my chart that presents a trade opportunity".
In my daily numbers on Wednesday my resistance was $.01 3/4 from the actual high; my support was $.00 1/2 from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on numbers! Same thoughts as yesterday going into the report. So I will mostly review briefly my thoughts since the last report 11/10/09.
Snow storm and 1.5 billion bushels in the corn fields provides the most support going into the new year. With all that corn in the field, we will not know what production really is until Feb.1 or after. Soybeans plunge to my $10.21 bolsters my thought of a sufficient pipeline need even though I feel carryout will be lowered tomorrow to 230 or under. This also tells me that the market is more focused on supply fulfilling current needs now rather than the supply down the road. I also think that is because by April, S. American soybeans will be flooding the world market. This has been the main reason I was trading the bull spreads of SF/SK. I did not plan on the current high prices which have served the purpose of getting farmers to market their beans now, which has filled the pipeline to meet the current strong export sales in full. This is why the spreads collapsed, and at these levels the risk reward is worth it. If demand picks up and carryout continues to tighten, the spread will work well.
I have stressed to you how I do not care what drives the market to levels, I want to exploit them, and regardless of if you are a speculator or producer, you make decisions at these levels to buy or sell depending on your needs. It does not matter what the market does when you are out, it only matters when you are in the market. In the market for a speculator means you are long or short the market, gambling, seeking profit and have some protection if wrong. For a producer if they are not hedged using the market, they are gambling, and if hedged it is like they are out of the market.
Everyone knows who to bet once the race is over. Reality is the same in trading, you make your bet before the race begins, and you bet using the knowledge, experience, and wisdom, execute a risk management program, money management, and try to make bets that puts the odds in your favor.
You know the levels of support and resistance, the dollar looks like it is holding and not the doomed currency that was the perception for so long until recently, funds I said would not buy until next year, and now that looks to be true. The outside markets will not help the grains the next 3 weeks, the technical's are eroding as I have predicted, and now it comes down to trading the market technically with my continued bearish bias stance at these price levels. How you trade it is up to you.
Lastly, As I said before and continue to think, spread traders should still consider buying the December 2010 corn and selling December 2010 wheat (CZ'10/WZ'10), fundamentally it looks really good. I also have said and still say, buy December 2010 corn and sell December 2010 soybean meal (CZ'10/SMZ'10).
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