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This report was sent to subscribers on 9/10/09 5:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 9/11/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
After the close: My support was $8.97, just 1/2 cent from the actual low, and my pivot acted as resistance and was $9.27 1/4, $.04 3/4 from the actual high.
Online Readers Please Note: Most services use at least 6 supports and 6 resistances for 1 session, what good does that do you, which number do you actually use? I use 1 or 2 support numbers and 1 or 2 resistance numbers. I did not cherry pick this market today; most of the markets I covered today had similar results. My subscribers have been praising me for the accuracy they consistently have shown, which is a confidence builder that leads them to rely on them as a valuable tool in their trading. This is also evident in the 90 to 100% renewal rate of existing customers. Some have been with me for 12 monthly renewals, most for more than 8 months.
Lastly, these are the same numbers I use to trade my CTA program, which earned 6.1% in June 2009, lost 0.60% in July, and made 0.40% in August.
For the 12 month period ending March 31, 2009, the "Futures Flight" program is up 33.45%.
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9.62 3/4 Resistance
9.44 near 200 day MA
-------------9.27 1/4 Pivot
Use the same numbers as used on 9/ 9 & 10 /09
5 day chart.……….. Down
Daily chart …….…Sideways
Weekly chart …….. Sideways
Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.42 is the 200 DMA
ATR 26 1/2 Oversold 26%
I have been saying "The 200 day moving average at $9.41 is major support" now it acts as resistance. New orange bracket line (minor) at $9.00, then green bracket line at $8.80 is major support. I adjusted the steep downtrend line which is now pivotal.
In my daily numbers on Thursday my resistance was $.09 1/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.02 from the actual low.
Grains: Corn has been the leader this week but does not impress me. It could be from corn/soybean spreading, and/or covering some very profitable short corn positions in a thin pre-report market. Whatever the reason, and no matter the report, if December corn gets near $3.30 it will be a sell that I do not want to miss taking.
Trade expects an increase in corn production of 171 million bushels and soybeans 57 million bushels. I think corn production will be more, and soybeans less. If we did get 42.4 bushels from soybeans, this would be 0.6 above the NASS's highest September estimates. They will probably raise 2010 S. American soybean production (start planting soon), but I cannot see how they will not raise exports with PRC buying the way they have, and raising 2010 exports to them since this year's PRC crop will be lowered on today's report. Hybrid seed companies and universities are keeping their promise of higher yields.
That is why I kept 20 bull spreads; I took off 10 because I made $3000 on Thursday, but want to take a look at the carryout and export numbers before I add them back. You had your chance Thursday in the first hour to have put the spreads on for better than settlement on Wednesday, and at a very low risk from there.
We are in a surplus situation in wheat and corn, and with S.A. planting pillar to post, if they produce a nice crop, soybeans will be plentiful too. I know there is a difference between row crop feed grains and oilseeds, and oilseed use I feel will continue to expand.
Report or no report, the bottom line for me is the weather for the next 30 days, it will either add or take away millions of bushels, and the numbers can be substantial either way. Unless the production forecasts are lower than what is expected, or frost comes into the picture, I look for lower grain prices the next 2 weeks. Sunday night's long range weather forecast will be the driver to start the week, and my eyes will be on the weather alone for direction, and use the numbers to trade it with.
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