November Soybeans Daily Numbers & Trade Ideas for 9/14/09

Published on: 12:33PM Sep 15, 2009

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This report was sent to subscribers on 9/14/09 3:50 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 9/15/09. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.

November Soybeans

At 11:00am Chicago time: My support was $8.92, $.09 1/2 from the actual low, and my pivot acted as support in the open outcry and was $9.12, the exact actual low, my resistance was  resistance and was $9.44, just $.01 from the actual high.

Online Readers Please Note: Most services use at least 6 supports and 6 resistances for 1 session, what good does that do you, which number do you actually use? I use 1 or 2 support numbers and 1 or 2 resistance numbers. I did not cherry pick this market today; most of the markets I covered today had similar results. My subscribers have been praising me for the accuracy they consistently have shown, which is a confidence builder that leads them to rely on them as a valuable tool in their trading. This is also evident in the 90 to 100% renewal rate of existing customers. Some have been with me for 12 monthly renewals, most for more than 8 months.

Lastly, these are the same numbers I use to trade my CTA program, which earned 6.1% in June 2009.

For the 12 month period ending March 31, 2009, the "Futures Flight" program is up 33.45%.

Do yourself a favor and subscribe to the same daily numbers I use trading an actual $1 million dollar fund account.

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   9.44                            near 200 day moving average


 -------------9.12             Pivot

   8.92                            Support

   8.81 1/4                     



5 day chart.……….. Down                    

Daily chart   …….…Sideways            

Weekly chart …….. Sideways      

Monthly chart ….... Sideways $9.42 is the 200 DMA

 ATR 26 1/2               Oversold 17%



Orange bracket line (minor) at $9.00, then green bracket line at $8.81 is major support. Recent highs near $9.44 is resistance now.

In my daily numbers on Monday my resistance was $.02 3/4 from the actual high; my pivot acted as support and was $.05 from the actual low.

Grains: Subdued trading session with the same tonight tells me that the market is marking time and trying to balance itself after the old crop September contract expired at noon. Soybeans and corn continues to find buyers with new sales reported again today. On the other hand we have a continued stream of negative news for wheat and willing sellers, and people like me waiting in the wings to sell corn about $.10 higher. Soybeans found support at my bracket line after breaking $1.15 in two weeks, and the strong demand coupled with the uncertainty over '09 Midwest yields helped.  

On the wheat front, fundamentals remain negative despite $2.70 erosion in WZ since early June highs.  US wheat export shipments are tracking at a 7 year low.  6/10 US wheat stocks could exceed 880 million bushels which equates to a 42% stocks/use ratio or a 20 year high.

Key market drivers are temperatures extended forecasts, yield reports relative to expectations, crude oil, the $, and the October 9th crop report hanging over our head. Given the perfect weather conditions the next 2 weeks, that report should show an increase in soybean and corn production.

I am surprised at corn holding up; maybe the market will flush out overconfident shorts before the next round lower. As long as corn is holding up, there is no urgency to sell soybeans. Selling rallies in corn and wheat is a no brainer for me. I can make an argument though for both sides of the fence for soybeans


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May Your Next Trade Be The Best                          

                     Howard Tyllas            


Tel.1-312-573-2699, 1-312-961-4390

Disclaimer:     No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Howard Tyllas, that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication of future performance.