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WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are reduced 1 million bushels with an increase in expected seed use. The seed use change is based on the 2015 planted area projection released at USDA’s February Agricultural Outlook Forum. The projected season-average farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low ends to $5.90 to $6.10 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are lowered fractionally due mainly to reduced Brazil production, which is partially offset by a larger Belarus crop. Both changes are made on updated government statistics. Global wheat exports are raised 0.5 million tons. The primary export increase is for EU on a fast pace of both shipments and export licenses. Imports are raised 0.3 million tons each for Morocco, Philippines, and Thailand, 0.2 million tons each for Jordan and Vietnam, and 0.1 million tons each for Ecuador and Saudi Arabia. These increases are partially offset by reductions of 0.3 million tons each for Algeria, Syria, and Yemen, 0.2 million tons for Libya, and 0.1 million tons each for Israel and Japan.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is down fractionally on lower food use, which is partially offset by increased wheat feeding. The largest decreases for food use are Brazil, India, and Syria (down 0.3 million tons each), and Libya and Yemen (down 0.2 million tons each). Feed use is raised 0.5 million tons for Australia, and 0.2 million tons for Thailand. This is partially offset by a 0.2-million-ton reduction for Israel wheat feeding. With world supplies falling faster than use, ending stocks are reduced fractionally.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected lower with reductions for corn and barley. Corn use in ethanol production is projected 50 million bushels lower based on the new Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report recently released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Reported corn use for ethanol for October through January implies a higher conversion rate than previously assumed. Partly offsetting the impact of the higher conversion rate is higher-than-expected December ethanol production and a stronger-than-expected pace of weekly production through February as reported by the Energy Information Administration. The reduction in corn use for ethanol is offset by a 50-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use. Thus, expected total domestic disappearance is unchanged. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels higher based on commitments to date and higher projected global demand. Projected ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels. The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $3.50 to $3.90 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.
Revisions to estimated 2014/15 first-quarter (September-November) corn use in ethanol production, based on the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production data for October and November, will be detailed in the March 12 Feed Outlook available from the Economic Research Service atwww.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn.aspx.
U.S. barley ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 4 million bushels lower with imports lowered 2 million bushels and exports raised 2 million bushels based on the pace of shipments to date. The projected barley farm price range is narrowed and raised 10 cents at the midpoint to $5.20 to $5.50 per bushel. The sorghum farm price projection is also narrowed and raised 10 cents at the midpoint to $3.70 to $4.10 per bushel. Both increases reflect farm prices reported through January.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 2.4 million tons lower mostly on reduced corn beginning stocks and production for South Africa. Upward revisions to 2005/06 through 2009/10 South Africa corn consumption lower estimated stocks over the last decade and cause a 2.2-million-ton reduction in 2014/15 beginning stocks. A 1.0-million-ton increase in Brazil beginning stocks is partly offsetting with 2013/14 production raised 0.5 million tons and exports lowered 0.5 million tons. Argentina corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons for 2013/14.
Global corn production for 2014/15 is lowered 1.6 million tons with reductions for South Africa and Belarus only partly offset by an increase for Argentina. South Africa corn output is lowered 2.0 million tons as February dryness and periodic heat, particularly in the western and central corn growing regions, coincided with corn pollination. Corn production is lowered 0.1 million tons for Belarus based on indications of lower harvested area from the Ministry of Agriculture. Argentina corn production is raised 0.5 million tons as a small reduction in harvested area due to recent flooding is more than offset by higher expected yields with abundant soil moisture available for pollination and grain fill in other areas. Developing dryness in southern growing areas, however, limits this month’s yield increase.
Other coarse grain production changes for 2014/15 include a 0.5-million-ton increase for India millet, a 0.4-million-ton increase for Australia barley, and 0.2-million-ton increases for both Belarus barley and rye.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised 2.7 million tons mostly on higher barley use for China with larger imports and higher millet use for India with larger production. Barley consumption and imports are also raised for Iran. Partly offsetting the increases in barley imports for China and Iran is a reduction for Saudi Arabia. Barley exports are raised for EU and Australia. Corn imports are raised for Saudi Arabia and Israel. In addition to the United States, corn exports are raised for Argentina and Brazil, more than offsetting a reduction for South Africa. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 5.0 million tons with corn ending stocks down 4.4 million. Projected foreign corn ending stocks are lowered 3.1 million tons with reductions for South Africa and Argentina.
RICE: The changes made to the U.S. 2014/15 rice supply and use balances this month are confined to forecast exports, ending stocks, and prices. The 2014/15 all rice export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 104.0 million. Long-grain exports are forecast at 72.0 million, up 1.0 million from last month based on larger expected exports to markets in the Western Hemisphere. The combined medium- and short-grain export projection is unchanged at 32.0 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.9 million cwt, down 1.0 million from a month ago—all in long-grain rice. Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 27.1 million cwt, the largest since 2010/11. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are unchanged at 11.5 million.
The 2014/15 long-grain season-average rice price range is projected at $12.20 to $12.80 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range. The all combined medium- and short-grain season-average price range is forecast at $18.10 to $18.90 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The California medium- and short-grain rice price is increased 30 cents per cwt to $19.80 to $20.80 per cwt. The Other States medium- and short-grain rice price is unchanged at $14.80 to $15.40 per cwt.
Global 2014/15 rice ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons primarily due to increase in consumption. Total supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 37,000 tons as the increase in production is insufficient to offset the decrease in beginning stocks. Global production is increased 300,000 tons based primarily on increases for India ( 500,000) and Sri Lanka ( 150,000), partially offset by a reduction for Thailand (-350,000). The increase in India is based on an expected larger Rabi crop. Sri Lanka rice production is raised because of an expected increase in plantings and yield for the Maha crop. Thailand 2014/15 rice crop is lowered 0.35 million tons to 19.15 million due to a reduction in dry-season plantings resulting from an on-going drought and a reduction in irrigation water availability concentrated in the Central Region. Thailand 2014/15 crop would be the smallest since 2006/07. The reduction in 2014/15 global beginning stocks is due primarily to reductions for Burma and Malaysia. Global rice consumption (includes residual) is raised 0.5 million tons with the largest increases for China and India. Global rice exports are raised 0.4 million tons due mostly to increases for Burma, India, and the United States. Global imports are raised for China, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2014/15 are unchanged this month. With soybean crush and exports projected at 1,795 million bushels and 1,790 million bushels respectively, ending stocks remain projected at an 8-year high of 385 million bushels. Soybean and soybean product prices are also unchanged. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2014/15 is projected at $9.45 to $10.95 per bushel; soybean meal and soybean oil prices are projected at $350 to $390 per short ton and 30 to 34 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 532.2 million tons, up fractionally from last month on small changes in foreign production. Global soybean production is unchanged at a record 315.1 million tons with Brazil soybean production projected at 94.5 million tons, Argentina at 56.0 million, and Paraguay at 8.5 million. Small changes in other oilseeds include increased rapeseed production for Australia, lower sunflowerseed production for India, and higher cottonseed production for Pakistan.
Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 136.8 million tons, up 0.3 million mainly reflecting increased soybean exports for Paraguay and India. Soybean imports are raised for several countries including Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Bangladesh. Lower soybean imports for Brazil and Iran partly offset these gains. Oilseed product trade changes include reduced soybean meal exports for India and reduced soybean meal imports for Turkey, the Philippines, Japan, and Venezuela. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 103.3 million tons, up fractionally from last month.
SUGAR: Mexico 2014/15 sugar imports are reduced by 18,186 metric tons (MT) due to fewer imports from the United States for Mexico sugar-containing product export program (IMMEX). The new import level is equal to 173,678 MT. With no change either to beginning stocks or to production, total supply is reduced by the same amount as imports. Mexico 2014/15 exports are reduced by 65,068 MT to 1.631 million. Exports are split between 1.306 million MT projected to go to the United States and 325,000 to other countries. Exports to the United States are projected under the terms of the Agreement Suspending the Countervailing Duty Investigations on Sugar from Mexico, dated December 19, 2014 – specifically the “Target Quantity of U.S. Needs” defined within the Agreement. There are no changes to deliveries, and ending stocks are calculated residually at 1.001 million MT, 46,882 MT more than last month.
Florida 2014/15 cane sugar production is increased 35,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on the sugarcane production estimates reported by the NASS in the March 10, 2015, Crop Production and on trend sugar per acre. Sugar imports expected from Mexico are reduced by 76,029 STRV to 1,525,911. There are no other changes to components of U.S sugar supply.
U.S. sugar exports for 2014/15 are reduced by 25,000 STRV, based on pace-to-date analysis. There are no changes to 2014/15 deliveries. Ending stocks are calculated residually at 1.650 million STRV, a decrease from last month of 16,029. The implied stocks-to-use ratio is 13.5 percent.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2015 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef production more than offsets increases in pork and broiler production. Fed cattle slaughter is expected to be lower in the first-quarter, but cow slaughter remains higher than expected. In addition, carcass weights are reduced slightly in the first quarter. Pork production is increased on higher first quarter slaughter and slightly heavier carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27 which will provide an indication of producers’ expectations to farrow sows through the third quarter. Broiler production is higher as hatchery data shows continued growth in chicks placed. Turkey and egg production is unchanged from last month.
The 2015 beef import forecast is higher than last month as demand for processing grade beef remains strong and strength of the dollar makes the United States an attractive market. Beef exports for 2015 are reduced due to relatively high U.S. prices and the strong dollar. Pork exports are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments in January. Pork imports are raised as the strong dollar makes the United States an attractive market despite large supplies of domestic pork. The broiler export forecast is lowered as the strong dollar crimps demand. Turkey exports are also reduced. The egg export forecast is raised.
The 2015 cattle price is unchanged. The hog price forecast is reduced as greater production and lower exports imply greater supplies for the domestic market. Broiler prices are lowered on weaker demand and larger supplies of product. Turkey prices are unchanged. The egg price is raised on stronger first quarter demand.
The milk production forecast for 2015 is lowered from last month as slower growth in output per cow more than offsets faster herd expansion. Both fat and skim-solids exports for 2015 are reduced as export demand is hampered by a strong dollar and increased competition from other exporters. Fat basis imports are higher on expectations of greater butterfat imports. However, robust domestic demand is expected to support increased product use.
Product price forecasts for butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are higher, supported by demand and price strength to date. Cheese prices are unchanged at the midpoint but the range is narrowed. Whey is lower on weaker demand. The Class III price is lowered on reduced whey prices. The Class IV price is higher due to higher NDM prices and butter prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.05 to $17.65 per cwt.
COTTON: The U.S. 2014/15 cotton supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 59.0 to 62.0 cents per pound is lowered 1 cent on the upper end, with the midpoint estimated at 60.5 cents per pound.
Marginal reductions in 2014/15 world cotton production and consumption are boosting projected global stocks to just over 110 million bales. Production is raised for Pakistan, but is lowered for Tajikistan and others. Consumption is reduced mainly for China, where yarn imports continue to rise, displacing growth in domestic cotton spinning. Lower consumption by China is partially offset by increases for Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam. World trade is raised slightly.
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