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OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.7 million tons, down 4.7 million from
last month. Soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed production are all projected lower. Soybean supplies
for 2011/12 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks.
Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower
harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using
rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota. The first survey-based yield forecast of
41.4 bushels per acre is 2.0 bushels below last month=s trend yield projection and 2.1 bushels below last
year=s yield. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as
reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush. Soybean exports are reduced 95
million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South
America this fall. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use.
U.S. changes for 2010/11 include reduced soybean crush and exports and increased ending stocks.
Crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.645 billion reflecting reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean
exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower-than-expected shipments in recent
weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.
Soybean and product prices for 2011/12 are all higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean
price is projected at $12.50 to $14.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal
prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil
prices are projected at 54.5 to 58.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 451.4 million tons, down 4.1 million tons from last
month mostly due to a reduction in the U.S. soybean crop. Reductions for soybeans, rapeseed, and
cottonseed are only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed and peanut production. Lower soybean
production is projected for the United States, China, and Ukraine. China's production is projected at 14
million tons, down 0.3 million due to reduced harvested area. Brazil=s soybean production is projected at
73.5 million tons, up 1 million due to higher expected yield. Production for Brazil's 2010/11 crop is also
raised this month to a record 75.5 million tons based on record yields. Rapeseed production is reduced
for Ukraine and Belarus reflecting lower yield prospects for both countries. Other changes include higher
sunflowerseed production for EU-27, higher rapeseed production for Australia, higher peanut production
for China, and lower cottonseed production for Brazil.
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast
winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring
wheat. Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels with a reduced outlook for exports more than
offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use. Exports are projected down 50 million bushels
with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised.
Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive
prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged.
The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from
last month's range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn.
Small changes are made to 2009/10 and 2010/11 supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to
trade estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census. These revisions result in adjustments to feed and
residual use in both years.
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 11.4 million tons higher with higher beginning stocks
and a sharp increase in production. World wheat production for 2011/12 is raised 9.7 million tons with
increases in FSU-12, India, China, and EU-27 more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina. Russia
production for 2011/12 is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest reports for winter wheat and continued
favorable weather in most of the country's spring wheat areas. Ukraine production is increased 3.0
million tons on higher-than-expected yields; however, heavy rains during harvest have reduced this
year's crop quality. Kazakhstan production is increased 1.0 million tons on abundant spring and early
summer rainfall. India wheat production is up 1.9 million tons based on the latest official government
estimates. China production is raised 1.5 million tons based on the latest official government indications.
Production is increased 1.4 million tons for EU-27 with increases for France, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Harvest results from France indicate yields were hurt less by prolonged spring dryness than early reports
had suggested. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton reduction in expected production for Argentina as the
latest planting progress reports suggest less acreage increase this year.
The 2011/12 outlook for world wheat trade and consumption this month is shaped by growing supplies of
wheat, especially in FSU-12 and EU-27, and tighter supplies of corn in the United States. Imports are
raised 3.0 million tons with increases for South Korea, Algeria, Indonesia, Syria, and Kenya. World
wheat feeding is increased 4.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in EU-27, China, Canada, South
Korea, and the United States. Exports are raised 4.0 million tons for Russia and 1.5 million tons for
Ukraine, more than offsetting reductions of 1.5 million tons for Argentina, 1.4 million tons for the United
States, and 1.0 million tons for Canada. World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 6.7 million
tons higher at 188.9 million tons. Stocks are expected to decline slightly from 2010/11 with higher usage,
but remain 62.9 million tons above their recent low in 2007/08.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower this month with sharp
drops in forecast corn and sorghum production. Corn production for 2011/12 is forecast 556 million
bushels lower with a reduction in harvested area and lower expected yields. The national average yield
is forecast at 153.0 bushels per acre, down 5.7 bushels from last month's projection as unusually high
temperatures and below average precipitation during July across much of the Corn Belt sharply reduced
Total projected corn use for 2011/12 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected
150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is
projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011
and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011/12 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding
expected to increase. Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocksto-
use ratio is projected at 5.4 percent, compared with last month's projection of 6.4 percent. The
season-average farm price is projected at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on each end of the
Other significant 2011/12 feed grain changes include a sharp reduction in the forecast sorghum yield and
production with prolonged drought and excessive heat in the central and southern Plains. Sorghum
exports are projected 20 million bushels lower. Domestic use is also projected lower with a 10-millionbushel
reduction in food, seed, and industrial use and a 25-million-bushel reduction in feed and residual
Small changes are made to 2009/10 feed grain supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade
estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census and revisions for 2010 calendar year ethanol production from
the Energy Information Administration. Estimated feed and residual use for 2009/10 is adjusted based
on these revisions.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower with a 3.6-million-ton increase in beginning
stocks more than offset by a 14.0-million-ton reduction in output. The decline in global production is
driven by reduced corn and sorghum production in the United States with foreign corn, barley, and oats
production all expected higher. Corn production is raised for Brazil, Ukraine, and EU-27, but lowered for
Egypt. Barley production is raised for Ukraine and Argentina, but lowered for EU-27. World oats
production is raised slightly with an increase for EU-27. World rye production is reduced with a smaller
expected crop for EU-27.
Global coarse grain exports for 2011/12 are lowered slightly as reduced U.S. corn and sorghum exports
are mostly offset by higher expected foreign corn and barley shipments. Corn exports are increased 1.0
million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for Argentina, and 0.5 million tons for Canada making up more
than half of the reduction in U.S. exports. Barley exports are increased 0.7 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5
million tons for EU-27, and 0.4 million tons for Argentina with the bulk of those increases to Saudi Arabia.
Global coarse grain consumption is projected down 8.4 million tons with most of this resulting from lower
world corn feed and residual use. More than half of the reduction is from lower corn and sorghum feed
and residual use in the United States. Corn feeding in lowered for EU-27, Canada, and South Korea as
rising supplies of competitively priced feed quality wheat displace corn usage. World corn ending stocks
are projected down 1.1 million tons with increases for Brazil and EU-27 mostly offsetting the U.S.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is increased 68,000 short tons, raw value,
from last month due to higher beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production and imports.
Production is lowered 80,000 tons, mainly due to lower-than-expected forecast yields for U.S. sugarbeets
and Louisiana sugarcane. Imports are decreased 110,000 tons as lower imports from Mexico more than
offset increased tariff rate quota imports. Total 2011/12 U.S. sugar use is unchanged. For 2010/11,
ending stocks are increased 258,000 tons, mainly due to higher imports from Mexico which reflect
corrected import data for June and a stronger-than-expected pace for the rest of the fiscal year.
For Mexico, reduced 2011/12 supplies lead to a reduction in exports of 205,000 metric tons, raw value,
as domestic use and ending stocks are unchanged. Beginning stocks, decreased 285,000 tons to reflect
changes made to prior year estimates, are partially offset by 80,000 tons of quota imports shifted from
2010/11 to 2011/12.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Small changes are made to the 2011 forecast of total red meat
and poultry production. Beef production is reduced slightly. Although fed cattle slaughter is raised to
reflect the large number of cattle placed in feedlots during the second quarter due to drought in the
Southern Plains, second-half carcass weights have been reduced. The pork production forecast is
lowered due to the expected short-term effect of recent hot, humid weather on third-quarter hog weights.
For the year, broiler production is unchanged from last month. Production in June was higher than
expected which offsets a sharper expected decline in second-half production. Turkey production is
raised as higher forecast turkey prices are expected to moderate the expected decline in second-half
production. The egg production forecast is reduced slightly from last month.
For 2012, beef production is reduced due to slower carcass weight growth and slightly lower later year
slaughter. Higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of later year marketings as cattle are kept
on forage longer. Pork production is lowered as tight feed supplies pressure hog weights. Broiler
production is forecast lower as the stronger second-half production declines carry into the first part of
2012. Turkey production is expected to grow more slowly as higher feed prices partly offset higher
turkey prices. Egg production is reduced from last month on higher feed prices.
Beef imports are forecast higher in 2011 as demand for processing meat remains relatively strong. Beef
exports are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favorable exchange rate is expected to support exports to
a number of countries. Likewise, pork export forecasts are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favorable
exchange rate and relatively strong demand for pork in Asia are expected to boost exports. U.S. pork
imports are reduced slightly in both years. No change is made to broiler exports for either 2011 or 2012
but turkey exports in 2011 are expected to be slightly stronger.
Cattle prices are forecast slightly lower for the third quarter but subsequent forecasts are unchanged.
Hog prices are forecast higher for both 2011 and 2012 as stronger export demand in both years support
prices. Broiler prices are lowered in both 2011 and in the first part of 2012 as supplies remain relatively
The milk production forecast for 2011 is reduced. Although the July Cattle report indicated that
producers are holding relatively large numbers of dairy replacement heifers which supports a higher
forecast dairy herd, recent hot, humid weather and relatively high priced feed may constrain the growth in
milk per cow. Milk production is forecast higher for 2012, reflecting a larger herd in the first part of 2012
but slightly slower growth in milk per cow. Commercial exports for 2011 are forecast higher on the
strength of butterfat exports. Imports are lowered reflecting lower imports of cheese and milk proteins.
Trade forecasts for 2012 are unchanged.
Cheese, butter, and whey prices are forecast higher for 2011, but nonfat dry milk (NDM) is forecast
lower. Tighter milk supplies are expected to support higher product prices but softening international
prices will likely weigh on U.S. NDM markets. The Class III price is raised, based on higher forecast
cheese and whey prices, but lower forecast NDM prices will outweigh higher butter prices and the Class
IV price forecast is reduced. For 2012, NDM prices are forecast lower on expected weaker early-year
demand but cheese prices are forecast slightly higher. Forecast butter and whey prices are unchanged
from last month. The Class III price is raised reflecting higher forecast cheese prices but lower NDM
prices result in a reduced forecast for the Class IV price. The all milk price forecast is raised to $20.30 to
$20.50 per cwt for 2011 and $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2012.
COTTON: The U.S. 2011/12 cotton supply and demand estimates include higher production, exports,
and ending stocks compared with last month. USDA's first survey-based crop estimates show harvested
acres of 9.7 million, indicating that 30 percent of planted area has been abandoned due to severe
drought. Production is estimated at 16.6 million bales, an increase of 550,000 bales from last month and
9 percent below 2010/11. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month at 3.8 million bales, but
exports are raised to 12.3 million due to the larger supply. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.3 million
bales, 16 percent above the beginning level, but still a relatively tight 20 percent of total use. The
forecast marketing year average price received by producers of $.85-$1.05 is lowered 5 cents on both
ends of the range, reflecting the recent drop in market prices.
Lower estimates of world consumption for both 2010/11 and 2011/12 are boosting this month's 2011/12
cotton world stocks forecast by about 1.7 million bales, despite lower production. Beginning stocks for
2011/12 are raised about 600,000 bales, due primarily to sluggish end-of-season consumption for
2010/11. World production for 2011/12 is reduced 450,000 bales, as lower production for Brazil,
Uzbekistan, Burkina Faso, and Benin is partially offset by higher production for the United States and
Mali. A reduction of 1.6 million bales in projected 2011/12 world consumption mirrors the adjustments
made for the preceding season and lowers the world consumption growth rate to about 1 percent,
reflecting continued weakness in fiber demand and increased substitution of polyester for cotton. World
trade also is projected lower. World ending stocks are forecast at 52.7 million bales.
RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 257.2 million cwt, up 0.6 million from last
month. Increases in both forecast beginning stocks and production more than offset a reduction in
imports. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2011/12 U.S. rice crop is 188.1 million cwt, up 1.1
million from last month's projection, but down 23 percent from the record 2010/11 crop. Average yield is
forecast at 7,114 pounds per acre, up 55 pounds per acre from last month's projection, and up 6 percent
from last year. Area harvested, at 2.64 million acres, is reduced slightly from a month ago. Long-grain
production is forecast at 124.2 million cwt, up 0.7 million from last month, while combined medium- and
short-grain production is forecast at 63.9 million, up 0.4 million from a month ago. The all rice import
projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 18.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain
imports from South Asia.
U.S. total rice use for 2011/12 is projected at 224.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from last month.
Although all rice domestic and residual use is unchanged from last month at 127.0 million cwt, the longgrain
projection is lowered 2.0 million to 94.0 million and the combined medium- and short-grain forecast
is raised the same amount to 33.0 million. The export projection is lowered 3.0 million cwt from a month
ago to 97.0 million based entirely on a decrease in combined medium- and short-grain exports. An
increase in competition from both Australia and Egypt is expected in medium-grain markets in North
Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania. The long-grain export projection is unchanged from a month ago
at 66.0 million cwt, and the combined medium- and short-grain estimate is lowered to 31 million. U.S. all
rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 33.2 million cwt, up 3.6 million from last month, but down
35 percent from the previous year.
The 2011/12 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $12.70 to $13.70 per cwt, up 70
cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at
$14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, down $1.50 per cwt on each end of the range. The 2011/12 all rice price is
projected at $13.20 to $14.20 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Higher prices are expected in
Thailand due to a government intervention program which will provide support to global long-grain prices.
Larger exportable supplies of medium-grain rice in both Australia and Egypt are expected to pressure
global medium-grain rice prices.
Lower projected global 2011/12 total use more than offsets a slight increase in total supplies resulting in
an expected increase in ending stocks. The increase in beginning stocks of nearly 0.7 million tons is
primarily due to increases for India and Indonesia, which is partially offset by a reduction for Pakistan.
Global production is lowered slightly due primarily to forecast reductions for Indonesia and the Koreas
which is partially offset by an increase for Egypt and the United States. On the use side, global
consumption is lowered 1.1 million tons leading to an increase in projected global ending stocks.
Domestic consumption is lowered for Pakistan and North Korea. Global exports are up from a month
ago due to increases for Brazil, Egypt, India, and Pakistan that are partially offset by reductions for
Thailand and the United States. Global imports are up for Indonesia and China. Global ending stocks
for 2011/12 are projected at 97.9 million tons, up 1.7 million from last month, largely the result of an
upward revision for Thailand.
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