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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report 10/8/10
Looks like limit up to me in corn, sharply higher for soybeans and wheat.
OILSEEDS:U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 102.8 million tons, down 2 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.408 billion bushels, down 75 million based on both lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is reduced 1.2 million acres to 76.8 million. The soybean yield is projected at 44.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels. Sunflower seed and peanut production are also projected lower this month while canola and cottonseed production are projected higher.
U.S. soybean exports are increased 35 million bushels to 1.520 billion reflecting strong export sales and reduced export prospects for Argentina resulting from lower beginning stocks. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1.665 billion due to improved prospects for domestic soybean meal disappearance and to a small reduction in the projected soybean meal extraction rate. The September 1 soybean stocks estimate confirmed a third consecutive marketing year of relatively low residual use. For 2010/11 residual use is reduced to 32 million bushels, down 38 million from the previous estimate. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, down 85 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and products are all raised this month, supported by strong prices for corn. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $10.00 to $11.50 per bushel, up 85 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $290 to $330 per short ton, up $20 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 39.5 to 43.5 cents per pound, up 2 cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.6 million tons, unchanged from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 255.3 million tons, up 0.4 million. Brazil soybean production is raised to 67 million tons, up 2 million due to increased area. India soybean production is raised 0.4 million tons to 9.2 million, also due to increased harvested area. Global sunflower seed production is reduced this month as lower production for Russia is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for Australia and India. Global oilseed stocks for 2010/11 are reduced 1.7 million tons to 71.4 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with a reduction for the United States partly offset by projected increases for Brazil and China.
COARSE GRAINS:U.S. feed grain production for 2010/11 is projected lower this month based on reduced forecasts for corn and sorghum and smaller production estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2010 Summary report. Corn production is forecast 496 million bushels lower as a 258,000-acre increase in harvested area is more than offset by a 6.7-bushel-per-acre reduction in yield. As forecast, this year’s yield and production still would be the third highest on record.
Higher 2010/11 corn beginning stocks raise prospects for 2010/11 feed and residual disappearance, especially during the September-December quarter. Ending stocks for 2009/10 are raised 322 million bushels based on the September 1 stocks estimate. Larger-than-expected carryout of old-crop corn combined with an unusually early start to this year’s harvesting suggest heavy new-crop corn use before the September 1 beginning of the 2010/11 marketing year. Individual state harvest progress reports suggest that 600-700 million bushels of corn were harvested across the South, Southern Plains, and southern Corn Beltbefore September 1. This is about double the level of the preceding 2 years and similar to what happened between the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. New-crop corn usage ahead of September 1, 2007, lowered feed and residual disappearance during the June-August quarter of 2006/07 and boosted feed and residual disappearance during the September-December quarter of 2007/08.
Despite the increase in 2010/11 beginning stocks, lower forecast production and higher projected domestic disappearance leave ending stocks down sharply from last month. Feed and residual use for 2010/11 is projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting the expected impact of new-crop corn usage before September 1 on indicated disappearance during the current marketing year. Exports are lowered 100 million bushels with tighter available supplies, higher prices, and increased competition from Argentina. U.S. ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 214 million bushels lower at 902 million. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.60 to $5.40 per bushel, up 60 cents on both ends of the range.
A number of changes are made this month to 2009/10 corn usage with the biggest a 358-million bushel reduction in feed and residual use as indicated by the September 1 stocks and small upward revisions to exports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use based on the latest available data. Sorghum FSI use and exports for 2009/10 are also lowered slightly this month. Changes to 2009/10 feed and residual use for barley and oats reflect small revisions to June 1 stocks from the September 30 Grain Stocks report.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are nearly unchanged with lower U.S. supplies offset by increased foreign coarse grain production. World corn production is lowered 6.4 million tons with the lower U.S. production and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia only partly offset by increases for Argentina, Serbia, EU-27, and several Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Production for Argentina is raised 4.0 million tons on higher expected area as rising corn prices and favorable early season soil moisture support a rapid pace of early corn planting. Global barley production is lowered 1.4 million tons with reductions of 0.7 million tons for EU-27, 0.5 million tons for Russia, and 0.3 million tons for Canada.
Global coarse grain exports for 2010/11 are increased this month mostly reflecting higher expected corn exports from Argentina, which are raised 3.5 million tons, along with small increases for Paraguay, Mexico, and Zambia. Corn imports are increased for Turkey, Colombia, Indonesia, and South Korea supporting higher expected corn feeding in these countries. Global corn ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 3.2 million tons lower this month despite increases for Argentina, EU-27, Zambia, and Iran. The reduction in U.S. corn ending stocks outweighs these increases.
WHEAT:U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 49 million bushels lower this month with lower estimated production and higher expected feed and residual use. Production is lowered 41 million bushels based on the Small Grains 2010 Summary report. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels on higher-than-expected disappearance during the June-August quarter as indicated by the September 1 stocks. Higher carryin with small upward revisions to estimated 2009/10 production and ending stocks are partly offsetting. The 2010/11 season-average farm price is projected at $5.20 to $5.80 per bushel compared with $4.95 to $5.65 per bushel last month.
Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 1.0 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower production in the United States. World production for 2010/11 is projected at 641.4 million tons, down 1.6 million tons from last month; however, beginning stocks are raised 0.6 million tons with upwardly revised 2009/10 production estimates for South America and Canada. For 2010/11, production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Mexico and 0.3 million tons each for Algeria and Canada. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Europe and 0.3 million tons for Ethiopia.
World wheat trade for 2010/11 is nearly unchanged this month. Imports are raised for North Africa and Mexico, but lowered for EU-27 and Iran. Exports are raised for Uruguay, but lowered for Mexico. World exports for 2009/10 are raised 1.6 million tons on the latest available trade data. Large late-season shipments boost 2009/10 Argentina and EU-27 exports 1.0 million tons and 0.6 million tons, respectively.
Global consumption is raised 2.1 million tons for 2010/11 with higher expected feed use for EU-27, Canada, and the United States. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 3.1 million tons lower with the largest reductions for EU-27 and the United States. Other reductions include Canada, Uruguay, Syria, and Iran. Ending stocks are projected higher for Brazil and Egypt. At the projected 174.7 million tons, 2010/11 stocks remain 50.2 million tons above the recent low in 2007/08.
RICE:U.S. rice production in 2010/11 is forecast at a record 242.3 million cwt, but down 13.1 million from last month due entirely to a decrease in yield. Average yield is estimated at 6,687 pounds per acre, down 360 pounds from last month, and the lowest yield since 2005/06. Harvested area is unchanged at 3.62 million acres. Long-grain production is forecast at a record 182.0 million cwt, 9.8 million below last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 60.3 million, down 3.25 million. The import and domestic- and residual-use forecasts are unchanged from a month ago. The total rice export projection at 119 million cwt is unchanged from a month ago; however, the rough rice export projection is raised 1.0 million, and the combined milled- and brown-export forecast (rough-equivalent basis) is lowered the same amount. Total rice ending stocks are projected at 52.5 million cwt, down 13.1 million from last month and the largest stocks since 1985/86.
The 2010/11 all rice season-average price is forecast at $12.10 to $13.10 per cwt, up $1.80 per cwt on both ends of the range compared to $14.00 per cwt for 2009/10. The long-grain season-average price range is projected at $10.50 to $11.50 per cwt, up $2.00 per cwt on each end of the range compared to $12.80 per cwt for last year. The combined medium- and short-grain price range is projected at $17.30 to $18.30 per cwt, up $1.30 per cwt on each end compared to $17.70 per cwt for 2009/10. The price increase is due to a smaller U.S. crop, higher global prices, and a weaker dollar.
Projected global 2010/11 rice production and consumption are lowered from a month ago, and trade and stocks are little changed. World rice production is forecast at a record 452.5 million tons, down 2.1 million from a month ago mostly owing to decreases in the United States, Burma, and India. India’s 2010/11 rice crop is lowered 2.0 million tons to 97.0 million due mostly to below normal monsoon rains in the east. Global consumption is lowered 1.7 million tons owing to a reduction in India. Global 2010/11 ending stocks are projected at 94.3 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month, and nearly the same as 2009/10.
SUGAR:Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is increased 63,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to higher beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production. Florida cane sugar production is reduced 65,000 tons to match processor production projections, while Hawaii is increased 35,000 tons to be in line with the previous year=s estimate. Sugar use is increased 100,000 tons, in line with the increase for 2009/10.
For 2009/10, U.S. supplies are increased 208,000 tons, due to higher production and imports. Production is increased 98,000 tons to account for larger-than-expected September output of U.S. beet sugar and Hawaii cane sugar. Imports are increased 110,000 tons, mainly due to higher imports from Mexico. Total use is increased 115,000 tons to reflect the strong demand for imported sugar and minor changes in sugar exports and deliveries for re-export products. Ending stocks are increased 93,000 tons, to 1.6 million tons or 14.4 percent of total use.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:The forecast of total U.S. meat production is raised for 2010 but lowered for 2011. Beef and broiler production forecasts for 2010 are raised as second half production is higher than previously expected, but the pork production forecast is reduced due to lower slaughter and slower growth in slaughter weights. The 2011 beef production forecast is raised primarily in the first quarter as larger-than-expected third quarter 2010 placements are marketed. Pork production for 2011 is lowered from last month as relatively high feed prices are expected to keep the growth in sows farrowing modest and dampen hog weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2011 are lowered from last month as higher feed prices slow growth. Likewise, egg production for 2011 is forecast lower.
Beef import forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011 as supplies in Oceania are expected to be relatively tight while foreign demand strengthens. Export forecasts for beef are raised on continuing strong sales to a number of markets. Pork and poultry trade forecasts are unchanged from last month.
The cattle price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are virtually unchanged. Hog prices are forecast higher on tighter supplies for both 2010 and 2011. The broiler price for 2010 is forecast lower on increased production, but the price forecast is raised slightly for 2011 on reduced output. Egg prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast lower.
Forecast milk production for 2010 is raised slightly from last month as higher milk per cow more than offsets lower cow numbers. The forecast for 2011 is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to slow the rate of growth in cow numbers and milk per cow compared with last month. Import and export forecasts are unchanged. Fat basis stocks are reduced for 2010 as stocks of butter are forecast to be tight. Skim solids stocks are unchanged.
Continued strength in demand for cheese and relatively tight supplies of butter support higher forecast prices for 2010 and 2011. Price forecasts for nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised for 2010 and 2011 as supplies are tighter. The 2010 whey price forecast is increased slightly but is unchanged for 2011. Both Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised due to the higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.45 to $16.55 per cwt for 2010 and $16.00 to $16.90 per cwt for 2011.
COTTON: This month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates are virtually unchanged from last month. Production is raised marginally, as increases for the Delta and Southwest are nearly offset by reductions for the Southeast. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks remain at 2.7 million bales, the equivalent of 14 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast at 67 to 79 cents per pound, compared with 63 to 77 cents last month. At the midpoint of the range, the forecast is 10 cents above the final 2009/10 marketing-year average price of 62.9 cents per pound.
Slight adjustments to the world cotton estimates for 2010/11 result in slightly lower ending stocks compared with last month. Higher production in Argentina, Australia, and Turkey is more than offset by a 1.0-million-bale reduction for China, which is based mainly on lower area as reported by Chinese agencies. China’s beginning stocks also are reduced as the current severe shortage suggests that consumption in 2009/10 was higher than previously forecast. Estimates of total world consumption and trade are raised slightly. World ending stocks are now forecast at 44.7 million bales, down about 2.0 million bales from the beginning level. Compared to last season, China’s stocks are forecast to fall by 3.5 million bales, while stocks are expected to rise in Brazil, India, and Australia.
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