Wake-Up Weather for January 16, 2009

Published on: 09:56AM Jan 16, 2009
Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc

Frigid weather in the heartland:  Temperatures fell to -15 to -25ºF night in Illinois and Indiana. Iowa and Minnesota reported -25 to -35ºF lows.  North Dakota warmed up to -20ºF after experiencing minimum temperatures down to -40ºF on Wednesday night.  Frost penetration will be deep on farms that lacked an deep snow cover. The southern half of the Corn Belt had scanty snow protection and therefore was vulnerable to deep frost.

Bitter cold easing:  Another surge of polar air will plunge into the Great Lakes on Sunday, keeping temperatures below normal in the eastern third of the country for a few more days.  However, bitter sub zero temperatures are not expected to last.  The Great Plains will warm up sharply in the next several days, easing feed grain consumption on cattle ranches in Nebraska, Kansas and the Dakotas. 

Unsettled weather continues in South Brazil:  Shower chances will remain alive this weekend in a trough of low pressure that extends from Paraguay to the southeastern Brazil coast.  January rainfall is mostly above average in Parana and Rio Grande, Brazil’s number 2 and 3 soybean states, where a very severe drought damaged crops from mid November to late December.  A significant part of the crop has been irreversibly damaged by intense drought,  but heavy January rain would help late-planted soybeans sown in December.

Tropical Brazil is turning dry:   While growing conditions have improved in South Brazil with heavy January rainfall, moisture stress is increasing in tropical Brazil.  A 3-5 inch rainfall deficit has built up in southern Goias, southeastern Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais, where practically no rain has been received in January.  Without daily showers, the hot tropical sun increases temperatures sharply.  January maximum temperatures are running 4-5ºF above normal in the affected areas.   The areas under stress comprise around 15% of Brazil soybeans.

Center-West region not affected:  So far, Brazil’s top soybean growing area, the Center West region of Mato Grosso, has not suffered from drought.   A slim surplus in field moisture persists, despite strong drying in the past week.  Hit or miss showers are predicted on the weekend.  
Argentina crops deteriorating:   Very dry January weather is taking a toll on corn and soybeans in northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe where less than 0.6" of rainfall has been received this month.   These growing areas had chance to make a decent soybean yield, had growing conditions improved with heavy rain. The only remaining area with a favorable outlook is central and western Cordoba.    We can understand why USDA cut the Argentina soy production estimate on the January Supply-Demand report.  However, a 2.2% decrease in soy output may not be enough.
Weekend showers may disappoint:  A strong cold front will be moving through the grain belt Saturday bringing a chance for showers to Argentina’s grain belt, but the GFS model does not predict much rain.  Temperatures are expected to drop 20º F after the front moves through, from the mid 90's down to middle 70's (ºF). Cooler weather is welcome but without rain, crops will not improve. Hot 90's may resume by Tuesday.

Produced by Storm Exchange, Inc