I spent most of today with Chris Barron (Ask the Margin Expert) at his farm (we thought we would be planting but with a temperature holding steady at 37 degrees not much planting is going on).
Part of the time Chris and I were discussing the effect of planting full season corn in a late planting year and the extra cost associated with drying costs on full season corn versus early season corn.
Another aspect to consider is the possible effect of having an early frost dramatically reduce the full season corn yield versus possibly little effect on early season corn.
All of these variables need to be assessed and then a SWAG (scientific wild a** guess) can be performed versus a WAG (wild a** guess) that we normally perform.
Chris and I spent some time developing an Excel spreadsheet that will more accurately provide a SWAG verus a WAG. Check www.agweb.com over the next few days for this spreadsheet and get started on a more scientific approach to your analysis.
What now in Corn, should we lift hedges, buyback sales?
May Soybeans Hedging & Trade Ideas for 5/2/13