We had someone note that the yields per NASS do not tie out to the final yields per FSA. I had taken a look at this a while back and noted that corn yields were usually within a bushel or two, but decided to review previous year's corn yields and see how much of a difference there was. I took the 2011 and 2013 corn yields for Illinois, Indiana and Iowa. I calculated the yield per planted acre (backing out any silage) and then compared that number and the harvested yield number with final FSA yields for that county.
In many cases, the actual FSA yield exactly equaled the NASS planted acre yield and in many cases the difference is due to rounding. FSA rounds to the nearest whole number and NASS rounds to the nearest tenth. However, the trend that became apparent is that the final FSA yield was about 1.5% higher than planted yield and almost 1% lower than harvested yield. Again, part of that is due to rounding, etc.
Since my original report on estimated corn ARC-CO net payments was based on my planted yield number, I have elected to update the report to reflect estimated net corn ARC-CO using both that number and a yield that is 2% higher (rounded to reflect FSA rounding). In most cases, if a county showed a full ARC-CO payment under the old planted acre yield, the new yield does not change the bottom line until perhaps you get to the $3.90 or $4.00 level.
The sum of all US county payments for the old yields compared to the new yields based upon the price points shown had a total variance of about 4% at the $3.50 level and about 7% at the $4.00 level. If you look at your county and both numbers are exactly the same, you can estimate a full payment in almost all cases. If your number changes between the two, I would estimate the lower number is probably more accurate.
But again, as the reader suggested, the final yield numbers will be FSA numbers and in some cases, the difference can be material. This report is a guide only to give you an idea as to estimated payments for 2014. I will update the report when final 2014 numbers are released and that may not occur until this summer.