via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.
If decision is announced, how would Brazil react?
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The Bush administration is seriously considering taking an administrative move, an action that would not need congressional approval, to cut the current 54-cent ethanol import duty, perhaps to zero, temporarily, and the administration probably could claim some kind of emergency and do it quickly, according to trade policy and government contacts.
Brazil's reaction Several sources told me that if the import duty announcement were made by the Bush administration, they do not think Brazil would significantly increase its exports of ethanol to the United States. Reasons: gas prices would increase in Brazil, and Brazil already has a robust ethanol export market, and would more likely want to ship ethanol to neighboring states like Argentina. and via countries like Japan of which it has long-term contracts.
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said the amount of money for those tariffs is locked in until 2010, and he does not believe the president can – or would – do that. Grassley said ethanol is coming in duty-free already up to 7 percnt of U.S. domestic production (roughly 700 million gallons) and there’s currently only approximately 3 percent of that 7 percent being used right now…so they could more than double imports. But as peviously noted, most would have to come from Brazil, but they are cutting back on ethanol exports because they need it themselves.
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