Analyst Waves Warning Flags On Export-Lead Recovery

Published on: 15:22PM Aug 27, 2009

Mike Walsten

We gladly admit we are happy that we are seeing some signs of recovery in our economic data. But we are still frankly concerned about how long it will take for the economy to really firm up and generate momentum. This analysis piece from Ambrose Evans-Prichard of The Daily Telegraph of London casts into question the idea that the U.S. and world economies will soon return to the level of activity which existed prior to the financial melt-down. The keys to his analysis are: 1) Japanese exports continue to decline, and 2) The Baltic Dry Index, which measures freight rates, has fallen almost continually for eleven weeks. The author sees these as signs the world economy is slowing, not firming, and that China's economy is cooling. These do not suggest that a return to robust global trade will occur any time soon. Click here to see the full story.

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