After Lackluster Demand, Exports the Answer

Published on: 07:28AM Nov 01, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 01, 2019.

Grain markets are mixed as a new month comes to fruition with little to change from the over-all narrative. As a reminder, Daylight Savings Time ends Sunday at 2:00 AM. Remember to set your clocks back 1 hour for Sunday night's reopen.

Weekly export sales reported corn sales at 549,138 metric tonnes. That was within the 300,000 – 800,000 trade expectation. Year to date sales total only 449 million bushels, 48% under last year. Soybean export sales in this week totaled 943,586 metric tonnes. That was within the 500,000 – 1,100,000 trade expectation. Year to date sales total 708 million bushels, 10% under last year. Wheat export sales in this week totaled 493,761 metric tonnes. That was within the 200,000 – 500,000 trade expectation. Year to date sales total 536 million bushels, 11% over last year.

USDA is estimated to report 161.8 million bushels of soybeans were crushed at processing plants in September in its monthly soybean crush report today at 2:00 PM CDT.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange set their wheat estimate at 18.8MMT, down from 1.0MMT from their previous estimate.  The USDA is still at 20.5MMT.

An ethanol production increase expected for Brazil, the world's second largest market for the biofuel, will not be enough to cope with rising demand and the country will continue importing fuel from the United States to cover the shortfall. According to analysts from S&P Global Platts, demand for ethanol in Brazil will increase around 2.5% per year in coming years, due to a new federal policy to boost use and to the price advantage over gasoline in the local market. (Reuters)

FranceAgriMer estimates the planting pace of soft wheat for the 2020 harvest was 54% complete as of Oct. 28, up from 29% the previous week and compared with 70% a year earlier.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States and China would soon announce a new site where he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will sign a "Phase One" trade deal after Chile canceled a planned summit set for mid-November.

Pork export sales were strong at 30,112 tonnes for 2019 delivery. This was 38% over last year in the same week. Year to date sales of 1,557,869 tonnes are 43% over last year. Beef export sales of 15,737 tonnes for 2019 delivery were noted. This was 38% under last year’s unusually large number of 25,311 tonnes in this specific week.

Actual Slaughter reported steer weights fell by 1 lb. to 900. Heifer weights rose by 3 lbs. to 831. Our focus is the year/year comparison. Steer weights grew from +0.2% to +0.7%. Heifer weights grew from -0.4% to +0.6%. Barrows and gilts saw carcass weights rise 1 lb. to 210. Compared with last year weights remained at +0.5%.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 2.13 and select up .18.  The CME feeder index is 145.23.  Pork cut-out values were up .61.