Be ready for 30 seconds of insanity

Published on: 08:19AM Aug 09, 2019

The desire to even up positions before Monday’s reports, i.e., cover shorts, outweighed the pitiful export sales and grain and soy markets closed strong yesterday and have even extended the gain again into this morning.  If we were to call it a wrap right now, December corn would be up right at 10-cents for the week, November beans 18-cents and December wheat 10-cents and nearly recouping all of last week’s losses.  For each as well, it will be the first higher close in the last four weeks.  

There is no question that the upcoming reports are critical as they should technically set the baseline for production that should have been set six weeks ago, and as such, holds the potential to generate quite a bit of excitement either higher or lower next week.  There is probably only one thing that we can be virtually assured of, and that is we will experience 30-seconds to a minute of market insanity when the figures are released. Once again, here are the average trade estimates; Corn acreage planted is expected to be 87.8 million, which would be down 3.9 million from the currently in use figure.  With an average projected yield of 164.9 bpa, this is expected to produce a crop of 13.170 billion bushels, which would be down 705 million from the last estimate. Backing into the number, this means the trade is expecting a harvested acreage of 79.87 million or 90.9%.  Looking at beans, the expected planted acreage came through at 80.95 million, up just 950,000 from the current estimate. The average yield is expected to be 47.5 bpa, bringing us a crop of 3.793 billion, which would be 52 million bushels lower than the July figure.  This means the average estimate for harvested acreage is 79.85 million, or 98.6%.  The average estimate for All Wheat production is 1.927 billion bushels.  Of this 1.295 billion is winter, 810 million is hard red, 256.5 million soft red, 227.5 million white, 571 million other spring, and 57.5 million durum. As far as domestic ending stocks, the average estimates for 2018/19 have corn at 2.389 billion, beans 1.066 and for the 2019/20 crop year corn is expected to drop to 1.595 billion, beans to 816 million and wheat at 998.5 million. Finally, for the world ending stocks numbers, 2018/19 corn is expected to show 329.84 MMT, beans 113.27 MMT and wheat 275.02 MMT.   Then for 2019/2020 corn at 290.09, beans of 104.77 and wheat at 284.08.

For the sixth week in a row, France AgriMer has lowered the crop rating for the French corn crop, but this week by only 1%, reducing it to 60% good/excellent. It only stands to reason that as the season begins to wind down, the rating will begin to reduce at a slower pace, particularly seeing that it has already dropped 22% from the peak in late June.  Wheat and barley harvest are in the final stages in that country and are estimated to be 98% and 92% complete respectively.  

I should point out that much of the rest of the trading world has settled out after a few hair-raising moments early this week in response to the trade war rheto ric.  Most notable are equity markets as after witnessing one of the largest wash-outs this year, we have pushed back to nearly unchanged for the week. While nothing has been settled just yet, at least a sense of calm has been restored.  The calm before the real storm?