Big weekend ahead for news

Published on: 06:01AM Jun 28, 2019

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Bulls are evidently in need of a little nutrition.  As we are all aware, just like any living creature, a bull market is dependent on a steady diet of additional calories and once you begin to take that away, feeding it nothing more than old stale leftovers, or worse yet, junk food, it will start to lose its vigor and eventually begins to contract. I do not believe we have quite reached that latter stage yet, at least in the case of the grains, but could soon. Of course, the next best chance for a fresh meal will be later this morning when the USDA releases the acreage and grain stocks numbers, and between now and then, little else matter. One last time here are trade estimates for the report; Corn acreage to expected to total  86.66 million, beans at 84.35 million and all wheat of 45.654 million.  The March USDA estimate was 92.79 million for corn, 84.62 million beans, and 45.75 million wheat.  No doubt, whatever the number comes in a will be debated.  The June 1st grain stock averages came through at 5.349 billion corn, 1.861 billion beans, and 1.10 billion wheat. 

I evidently looked at my calendar without my glasses on as the quarterly hogs and pigs report will be released this afternoon.  Once again, here are the average trade estimates; All hogs as of June 1st 103% of a year ago or 75.05 million head.  Kept for breeding 102.1% or 6.453 million head and Kept for market 103.1% or 68.609 million head.  The March through May pig crop is expected to be 102.6% of last year.

Once these numbers have been issued, the focus of the trade will undoubtedly quickly turn to updates from the G20 summit that is being held in Japan right now and most specifically the meeting that is set to take place between President Trump and President Xi tomorrow.  It is difficult to make heads or tails out of all the pre-meeting rhetoric, and I am sure that each side wants to cast the illusion that they remain tough on demands while their underlings make more positive statements. Sounds kind of like a bad cop, good cop scenario.  Needless to say, not only will everyone in the United States and China be listening attentively to the tone of the meeting, but so will the rest of the world as the trade war continue to create a drag on the global economy.

AgriMer of France updated their crop rating for that nation, and it would appear that the heat wave across the region is creating any issues just yet. They rate 82% of the corn good/excellent, up 1% for the week, soft wheat at 80% good/excellent which was unchanged, spring barley 75% good/excellent up 1% and winter barley at 87% good/excellent. 

The European Commission raised its corn production estimate 1.1 MMT to 69.3 MMT and lowered the barley estimate 800k MT to 59.9 MMT.  Rapeseed was left unchanged at 18.7 MMT.  2019/20 corn imports were left unchanged at 15.5 MMT, which would be down from a just revised (higher) 24 MMT for 2018/19. 

In the southern hemisphere, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that their corn harvest is now 46% complete, which was only a 2% expansion in the last week, with beans now 99.5% complete. 

Finally, the International Grains Council released updated estimates for global crop and now place corn at 1.095 billion MT, down 23 MMT from the previous estimate. They put soybeans at 349 MMT, down 9 MMT, and wheat at 769 MMT, up 3 MMT.