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Beans look poised for a big move

Published on: 13:56PM Feb 08, 2018

CORN (March)


Yesterday’s Close:  March corn futures finished the day up 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 3 ¼ on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 17,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  The market has made a nice run over the past month as funds have been covering shorts.  With the new crop December nearing $4 we are starting to see producer selling increase.   Export sales this morning came in at 1,769,600 metric tons, this was towards the top end of the expected range.  Now the attention will turn towards this mornings USDA report which is due out at 11 am cst.  US Corn carryout is expected to come in from 2.425-2.55 billion bushels with the average estimate being 2.468 billion bushels.  World carryout is expected to come in from 198.90-208.00 million tonnes, the average estimate is for 204.66.  The average estimate for Argentina production comes in at 40.68 million tonnes.  The average estimated for Brazilian production comes in at 93.75 million tonnes.

 

Technicals:  Corn futures have worked their way up against technical resistance from 366 ½-369.  This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement level along with previous price points.  If the bulls can chew through this resistance we expect to see the market extend towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (March)

 

Yesterday’s Session:  March soybean futures finished yesterdays session down 3 cents, trading in a range of 11 ¾ (much of that in the overnight).  Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 5,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  This mornings export sales came in at 751,400 metric tons, this was towards the top end of the expected range.  Traders are looking forward to getting some new news across the wire that doesn’t have to do with weather.  US Carryout is expected to come in between .460-.535 billion bushels with the average estimate being .486 billion bushels.  World carryout is expected to come in between 97.00-100.50 billion tonnes with the average estimate being 98.61.  Production in Argentina is expected to come in near 54.06 million tonnes.  The average estimate for production in Brazil is 111.20 million tonne.  Export sales will also be out tomorrow morning.  Weather and crop developments in South American will continue to be monitored closely. 

 

Technicals:  The market spent majority of yesterday’s session playing pinball between technical resistance and support.  The market remains trapped in that pocket this morning as market participants await new news to potentially give us a break out or a break down.  If the market can achieve a close above 988, we expect to see the market make another run at 999-1006.  If the market closes below 980 ½, we expect to see the market make a run back below 970.  The chart is neutral here but looks like it wants to go....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

WHEAT (March)​

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March wheat futures finished yesterdays session up 14 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 14 cents on the day (gap).  Funds were estimated buyers of 10,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  This mornings export sales came in at 415,500 metric tons, this was towards the top end of the expected range.  This mornings USDA report will be released at 11 am cst.  The range of estimates for US carry out comes in from .974-1.014 billion bushels with the average estimate coming in at .990 billion bushels.  World carryout estimates range from 265.00-269.71 million tonnes with the average estimate coming in at 267.80 million tonnes.  Dry weather in the plains are encouraging short covering from the funds.

 

Technicals:  March whet futures printed their highest price since October 9th as funds continue to cover shorts amid the constructive fundamentals and technical.  The market managed to get out above our resistance pocket from 456 ¼-458 ¾ which is encouraging for the bulls, but they will now need to defend this level as it becomes first support.  A failure to do so could encourage some sellers to come back in and press us back to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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