Buy corn and sell beans?

Published on: 13:48PM Nov 05, 2018

Grain Express

 

November 5, 2018

 
 

 Corn (December)

 

Last Week’s Close:  December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 4 ¼ cents, trimming the losses for the week to 2 ½ cents.  Futures trade in a 10 ½ cent range through the week.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 16,333 futures through October 30th, trimming their net long position to 11,570 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  There was not much new news over the weekend, leading to a relatively quiet start to this week’s trade.  Many market participants are excited for Thursday’s WASDE/Crop Production report, released at 11am cst.  We will have estimates out in tomorrow’s report.  Informa Economics released their crop estimates, lowering the U.S. corn yield to 179.7 bushels per acre, dropping production to 14.698 billion bushels.

 

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Soybeans (January)

 

Last Week’s Close:  November soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 4 ¾ cents, extending gains for the week to 29 ¼ cents.  Futures traded in a 56 ¼ cent range through the week.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 30,636 futures through October 30th, expanding the net short position to 69,915 contracts. 

 

Fundamentals:  The market got a shot of steroids in the back half of last week’s trade as a tweet from President Trump reinvigorated hopes of a trade deal coming down the pipeline.  Though possible, we have to deal with the information at hand which has tempered our expectations.  The big-ticket item on the wires this week will be Thursday’s WASDE/Crop Production report, released at 11am cst.  We will have estimates out in tomorrow’s report.  Informa Economics updated estimates show soybean yields at 52.6 bushels per acre, down .4bpa from their previous estimates, lowering production down to 4.647 billion bushels.

 

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Wheat (December)

 

Last Week’s Close:  December wheat futures finished Friday’s session up ½ of a cent on Friday, extending gains for the week to 3 ¾ cents.  Futures trade in a 25-cent range through the week.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 17,905 contracts through October 30th, expanding their net short position to 47,928 contracts. 

 

Fundamentals:  The U.S. dollar has been one of the leading catalysts on our radar recently.  If the dollar does top out and we see it pull back, we would expect to see that be favorable for the export campaign and therefore prices over the intermediate term.  If corn and beans retain strength, that would be beneficial for wheat futures as well.  There is a USDA report this Thursday, we may see some position squaring into that, we will have estimates for you in the coming days.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.