Close to a bottom?

Published on: 13:02PM Apr 22, 2019

Grain Express

 

April 22, 2019

 
 

 

 

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Corn (July)

 

Fundamentals:  With May option expiration and first notice day right around the corner, we will be focusing in on the July contract.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows funds holding a record net short position, 307,529 futures/options.  As mentioned, multiple times last week, the potential for a short covering rally is high, but the velocity could be limited with producers holding a net long position currently 28,009 contracts.  That doesn’t seem like much, but to put things in perspective they were net short nearly 300,000 contracts at the start of the year.     Weather will continue to be monitored closely for the next few months.  Crop progress will be out after the close, expectations are for the U.S. corn crop to be 8% planted, lagging the 5-year average.  May options expire on Friday, this could play a role in near term price action. 


Technicals:  The market has been....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email [email protected]

 

 

Soybeans (July)

 

Fundamentals:  With May option expiration and first notice day right around the corner, we will be focusing in on the July contract.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows funds holding a short position of 91,400 futures/options, their largest short position since January 16th, 2018.  Crop progress will be out after the close, expectations are for the U.S. soybean crop to be 2% planted, in line with historical trends.  Trade negotiations continue to grab headlines as the administration continues to spin a positive narrative, if you believe that price precedes news, you’re not buying it.  U.S. officials will be traveling to China in a week, this will likely keep the headlines coming.  May options expire on Friday, this could play a role in near term price action. 

 

Technicals:  The market has continued to get....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email [email protected]

 

 

Wheat (July)

 

Fundamentals:  With May option expiration and first notice day right around the corner, we will be focusing in on the July contract.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows funds have a short position of 63,076 futures and options.  Funds also have a record short KC wheat position of 54,295 futures and options.  The technicals are overwhelmingly bearish but it’s hard to jump on that bandwagon with the funds so extended.  May options expire on Friday, this could play a role in near term price action. 

 

Technicals:  The market had a technical breakdown last Tuesday which has put....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email [email protected]

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.