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Daily Fundamentals/Technicals for Grain & Livestock

Published on: 12:55PM Aug 22, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 4 cents, trading in a range of 5 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 9,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  There has not been a lot of new news on the wires over the past 24 hours which led to a slow bleed lower, carrying over into the early morning trade.  Crop tours continue on and in most cases the results are confirming what the USDA had projected two weeks ago, a big crop.  The Pro Farmer tour has their Nebraska yield coming in a hair over 179 bushels/acre, well above last years 165.4 bushels/acre.

 

Technicals:  We want to be friendly this market, but we have not been able to find a compelling reason recently from the fundamental or technical perspective.  The fail to breakout above our resistance pocket from 380 ½-382 ½ has confirmed our bearish leaning bias.  The market has broken down below first support at 374 which opens the door for a run at....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 8 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 10 cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 3,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  The fundamental picture has not changed much over the last 24 hours.  Continue disruptions with Chinese trade coupled with a big crop has kept a lid on rally attempts.  Expect trade headlines to come and go and come and go again; this will keep volatility alive which will provide great short-term opportunities for both the bulls and the bears.  Brazilian bean acres are also expected to increase again this year which shouldn’t come as a shock as demand for their product continues to grow. 

 

Technicals:  As with corn, we want to be friendly this market, but we have not been able to find a compelling reason recently from the fundamental or technical perspective.  The markets inability to sustain momentum above the psychologically significant $9.00 handle has want to be bullish traders thinking twice.  The market has now retreated to our first support pocket which we have had defined as 880 ¾-882.  A break and close below opens the door for a run at....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished the day down 14 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 18 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  The bulls have found it difficult to find new bullish news to propel the market higher, which has led to long liquidation from the funds.  As mentioned over the last few weeks, the headlines of hot and dry weather in places like Europe, Australia, and the Black Sea have run their course.  The market will need to see Russian exports get ratcheted back to put a floor in this market, we don’t expect to see this happening near term. 

 

Technicals:  The market is now testing our 4-star support pocket which we have had defined as 539 ½-540 ½.  This is the spot for the bears to reduce some exposure.  Don’t confuse that with a place we are recommending buying.  A break and close below this pocket could be the knock out punch to the bulls, leading to an acceleration in long liquidation.  The next support comes in from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets in more depth, please do not hesitate to call or email.

 

Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

Direct: 312-837-3938

 

 

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Last Trades:

LEV8: -.35 at 110.10, trading in a range of 1.15

LEZ8: -.125 at 114.45, trading in a range of .775

GFU8: -.225 at 150.875, trading in a range of .80

GFV8: -.40 at 150.875, trading in a range of 80

 

Cattle Commentary:  Cattle futures were mute for much of the session but saw sellers scramble in into the close, likely leading to a weaker open tomorrow morning.  We have been cautioning that the market is looking more tired (fats and feeders), that’s not to say we are going to roll over, just suggesting that a visit back to the bottom end of the range is likely.  Talks of 110.50 cash to start the week is the word on the street.  Tomorrows Fed Cattle Exchange has 359 head offered, this could shift the line in the sand.  We would not be surprised to see some position squaring ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.  There are some big headlines out this evening surrounding the President, if that spills over into a pop in outside market volatility, it may be hard for cattle to avoid.

 

PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select

Current Cutout Values: / 213.57 / 204.08

Change from prior day: / (.41) / 1.79

Choice/Select spread: / 9.49

 

Tech Talk

 

Live Cattle (October)

 

Today’s price action and close fits our narrative that the market is starting to look tired.  Follow through pressure tomorrow will likely spark additional long liquidation.  Previous resistance now becomes first support, we see that as 109.55-109.85. This pocket represents previously important price points and the 50% retracement from the February highs to the April lows.  A break below here takes us closer towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Feeder Cattle (October)

Feeder cattle traded in an extremely tight range as market participants sat on their hands.  The 50-day moving average held to a T, a break and close below here takes us back towards the bottom end of the recent range which we see as....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (October)

 

Front month hogs finished the day while deferred months rallied on swine flu concerns in China.  October futures finished the day own .375 at 56.10, trading in a range of 1.675.  This market continues to have wide swings on headlines that are uncontrollable.  Supply concerns continue to linger but potential disruptions in China could provide a huge rally in prices if the flu is not contained.  If you don’t have the stomach for futures in this market environment, consider using options.  We would not be surprised to see the market come into more of a range between....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets in more depth, please do not hesitate to call or email.

 

Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

Direct: 312-837-3938

 

Become a brokerage client and receive our daily commentary for FREE!

Better Service, Platforms, and Rates!

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.