Daily Grain Market Commentary (7.23.18)
Jul 23, 2018
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Last Week’s Close: December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 3 ½ cents, extending gains for the week to 16 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 25,021 futures from July 10th-17th, expanding their net short position to 165,965.
Fundamentals: New news over the weekend was scarce, with weather playing out as expected. Today we will get the weekly export inspections data, along with the weekly crop progress report after the close. Last week’s report showed the U.S. corn crop at 72% good/excellent, would aren’t expecting any significant changes.
Technicals: We shifted our bias from neutral to bullish last Tuesday as our proprietary indicators started shifting. The market managed to string together some good sessions, leading to the biggest weekly gain on record for this specific contract. We continue to feel there is potential to the buy-side but were working with clients Friday afternoon to tighten things up. If you’ve been able to ride a little wave higher, we suggest doing the same. There is a big hurdle from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last Week’s Close: November soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 3 ¾ cents, extending gains for the week to 31 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 8,556 futures from July 10th-17th, increasing their net short position to 72,009.
Fundamentals: There were few developments over the weekend which has led to a fairly tame Sunday night open and early morning trade, something we have not seen for a while. We will get a few new nuggets of information today, export inspections this morning and crop progress after the close. Last week’s crop progress report had U.S. beans at 69% good/excellent, we are expecting something in that ballpark. The market managed to close higher every day last week as it appears fundamentals are taking back control from what has been an emotional trade for the last two months. There was a headline at 5am Friday morning from President Trump, stating that he is “ready to go” with the extra $500 billion in tariffs on China. The market sold off 10 cents in a short period, but regained ground to hold positive territory through the session. The fact that the market was able to shrug that off is a positive sign.
Technicals: The market managed to achieve consecutive closes above our 860 which is encouraging for the bulls, but they need to defend this area on a closing basis. If the market starts peeling off and we retest 850, that puts the bears back in the driver’s seat. In last week’s report, we laid out technical resistance from 866 ¾-872, that has been defended by bears thus far. A close out above this pocket spark a swift rally towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last Week’s Close: September wheat futures finished Friday’s session up 12 ½ cents, extending gains for the week to 18 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought 1,832 futures contracts from July 10th-July 17th, putting them in positive territory by 566 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures have been able to hold ground better than corn and beans, thanks to global concern regarding the potential for lost production. We feel that global supply is ample, and any production disruptions will be short lived. New news out today will consist of weekly export sales, and crop progress after the close. Last week’s rating for U.S. spring wheat was 80% good/excellent, we are expecting something similar this week.
Technicals: Wheat futures managed to take out technical resistance on Friday and are holding ground above there in the early morning trade. If the bulls can hold gains through the floor open, perhaps the market can continue to rally. If the market starts retreating back below previous resistance it could start to feed on itself. A close back below 510 ½ opens the door for a run back at....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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