Daily Grain Market Technicals and Fundamentals

Published on: 13:06PM Jul 31, 2018

 Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 5 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 5 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 7,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s crop progress report showed U.S. corn ratings at 72% good/excellent, this was unchanged from the previous week and 1% better than what analysts were expecting.  Despite better than expected ratings, the market is retaining strength in the overnight/early morning trade.  Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 1,658,477 metric tons, above what analysts were looking for.  Corn has been the beneficiary of a resilient wheat market, if wheat runs out of gas, it could put a short-term lid on the current corn rally. 

 

Technicals:  The market has moved out above technical resistance from 376 ¼-379 ¼, this will now become first support on a closing basis.  If the bulls can continue to defend support we could see additional short covering invite new buyers into the market and press us towards 389 ¾, this represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) for the year.  There are several technical barriers between....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 6 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 10 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 6,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s crop progress report showed the U.S. soybean ratings at 70% good/excellent, this is unchanged from the previous week and 1% better than what analysts had been expecting.  Despite the better than expected crop conditions, the market continues to hold strength.  Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 740,323 metric tons, this was above analysts’ expectations.  We continue to believe that longer term fundamentals are supportive to the market and we would not be terribly surprised to see China come back to the table closer to fall.

 

Technicals:  The market is testing significant resistance from 897 ¾-901 ¾ for the third time in 4 sessions, if we see volume on the buyside when the floor opens up we could get that next leg higher.  Our next line in the sand comes in from 915 ¾-920 ½, this pocket represents the breakdown point on June 19th and impenetrable resistance for the 4 following sessions.  A conviction close above that pocket would open the door for a run at 943 ½.  On the support side....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (September)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 14 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 19 cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 7,500 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s crop progress report showed spring wheat ratings at 78% good/excellent, this stuck with the theme of being 1% better than what analysts were expecting.  Harvest is 4% complete, slightly behind expectations.  Winter wheat harvest came in at 85% complete, also slightly behind expectations.  Weekly export inspections came in at 379,149 metric tons.  Weather conditions abroad continue to offer support to the market with the biggest concerns coming from Europe and the Blake Sea region. 

 

Technicals:  The market has built a base off of Friday’s higher low against on previous resistance (524 ½).  The market has used that to spring board back to our resistance pocket from 550-553 ¾.  The market feels primed for a move above this pocket based off of our indicators.  If the bulls can achieve this, we could see an extension towards the May 29th highs of 570 ¾.  A failure and close back below....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets in more depth, please do not hesitate to call or email.

 

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Direct: 312-837-3938

 

 

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