Yesterday’s Close: Corn futures closed 2 ¼ cents lower yesterday, trading in a range of 4 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Planting delays continue to be the big headline but at this stage in the year, the market is shrugging it off fairly easy. If we see this weather persist for the next few weeks, that will likely be a different story. Out side of weather, there is not a lot of new news to report. May option expiration is Friday and there is a lot of open interest on the puts and calls side of things which could be playing a role in recent price action. As of right now, the 380 strike looks like it may be a magnet into Friday’s close. There are 14,668 puts and 21,856 calls. The recent pressure has wiped out premium on the call side where open interest is substantially higher from 380-400.
Technicals: May corn futures tested and held our support very well (so far), We have had our support pocket defined as 379 ¾-382 ¾. We continue to believe this pocket represents great value on the first test from the risk reward perspective. If the bulls cannot defend this level in the back half of the week it is possible that we long liquidation break us back down towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: Soybean futures finished the day up 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 9 ¼ cents for the session. Funds were estimated buyers of 5,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Soybean futures are consolidating some as the market searches for new news. Planting delays for corn continue to be a headline, but it is more of an annoying itch as opposed to a real problem at this point in time. If the delays continue for another few weeks, then we would start to put a little more weight into those concerns. May option expiration is on Friday which could keep things interesting. The open interest is something we keep an eye on into expiration. Strike prices with higher open interests tend to be a bit of a magnet for prices. There are nearly 25,000 puts from 1050 down to 1040; this may provide a bit of a floor into the market.
Technicals: The market looked like it was going to make a run at 1034 ¼-1036 ¾ but there appears to be a change of plans this morning. This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement from the January lows to March highs, the 50-day moving average, and the gap from March 6th. We feel this pocket also represents a great opportunity to the buy side. We posted higher highs last week, and if that pocket holds it would be higher lows. The bulls want to see a close back above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: May wheat futures finished the day up 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 9 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 3,500 contracts on the session.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures have caught a bid in the overnight and early morning session as weather concerns work their way back into the lime light. If we continue to see poor weather conditions, we could see this market take off in a hurry. We will be keeping a very close eye on the KC wheat contract, as we are anticipating it to be the leader. We are also keeping an eye on the USD as it quietly softens up; this would add additional support to the market. May option expiration is this Friday, it does not appear there are any significant strikes that would be a “magnet” for the market.
Technicals: The market is making a nice turn this morning, taking out yesterdays highs, working to fill the gap from the Sunday night open. The 50 and 200 day moving average come in from 472 ¾-475 ½. If the bulls can close above these indicators today, that would likely invite momentum traders into the market and potentially encourage some short covering as well. A failure to breakout will lead to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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