Daily Grain Market Update (4.19.18)
Apr 19, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: May corn futures finished the day up 2 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 10,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Weather continues to be the hot topic amongst traders and producers this week. The colder temperatures and even snow in some areas has led to some delays in planting. We are not all that concerned at this stage of the season because we understand that farmers can get the crop in the ground in a very short window. In fact, we have seen Iowa plant 61% of their crop in 1 week (2011, week ending May 8th) and has planted nearly 50% in one week on six other occasions (Thomson Reuters). The weather issue we have more concern over is when we look at the extended forecast. Early calls are for one of the hottest Junes on record, coupled with little moisture. This in our mind is a real talking point.
Yesterday’s ethanol report showed production at 1.009 million barrels per day, this was down from 1.034mbpd in the previous week. This was the fourth consecutive week of declines. Export sales this morning came in at 1,091,700 metric tons for 2017/2018 and 112,200 metric tons for 2018/2019.
Technicals: The market has held support well this week, but needs to see more of a spring board off of it to feel more comfortable about being long. The bulls want to see a close above 384 ½-385, this should open the door for a retest to the top of our resistance pocket which we have defined as 391 ¾-395 ¼. This not only represents the top end of the recent range, but also the 50% retracement from the July highs to the January lows. On the support side of things....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: May soybeans finished the day down 4 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 13 ½ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged yesterday as the bulls and bears continued to battle of near term fundamentals and technicals. There is not a lot of new news on the fundamental side which has led to a consolidation in prices over the past few sessions. Export sales this morning came in at 1,040,700 metric tons for 2017/2018 and 1,090,700 metric tons for 2018/2019. Last week we saw some flash export sales but that has tapered off, the bulls want to see more follow through on this front. Near term weather outlooks have some suggesting that planting delays for corn could lead to more acres in beans. If this weather continues for the next 2-3 weeks that will be a bigger concern.
Technicals: Soybean futures look a little lost on the technical side of things as the market hovers just above the 50-day moving average. We believe there is opportunity for this market to work higher but would like to see the gap from April 6th fill while we are down here, that comes in at 1034 ¾. If the bulls cannot defend the gap on a closing basis, we could see long liquidation take us another 20 cents lower. The next support pocket comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: May wheat futures finished the day up 9 cents, trading in a range of 10 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 6,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures caught a bid yesterday as forecasts for rain got reduced a bit. Talking with a client the other day he compared the rain forecasts to the sign at the bar that says, “Free Beer Tomorrow”. If it continues to stay dry, you can bet that the market will go bid. This mornings export sales came in at -66,900 for 2017/2018 and 240,400 for 2018/2019.
Technicals: The market is right in the middle of the 2-month range, hovering just above the 50 and 200 day moving average which come in at 473 ¼ and 474 ¾ respectively; this will act as first support for today’s session. If the bulls cannot defend support, we could see sellers step back in and take us down towards 457 ¾-461 ¾. First resistance from here comes in.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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