Daily Grain Market Update (4.24.18)
Apr 24, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: July corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 1 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 2 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 7,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 1,719,025 metric tons. The expected range was for 1,200,000-1,700,000 metric tons; last weeks inspections number came in at 1,576,000 metric tons. Yesterday afternoons crop progress report showed that corn is 5% planted, this was on the low end of the expected range and compares to the 5-year average pace of 18%. Weather will continue to be an important factor going forward. If the planting delays continue we would expect to hear more chatter with regards to acres moving from corn to beans.
Technicals: Not a lot has changed on the technical front over the last 24 hours. First support this week comes in from 379 ½-383 ½. This pocket represents the 100 and 200 day moving average, previous support at the end of March, and the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the January 12th lows to the March 13th highs. We continue to be friendly the corn market, but this level must hold on a closing basis for us to keep our bullish bias. A break and close below could encourage some additional long liquidation from the funds. On the resistance side of things, the first pocket comes in from 387 ¼-389 ¾. This pocket represents a key retracement, support last week, and the 50-day moving average.
Resistance: 387 ¼-389 ¾**, 392 ½-393***, 400 ½-402 ¾****
Support: 379 ½-383 ½****, 377 ½**, 362-365 ¼***
Yesterday’s Close: July soybean futures finished the session down 10 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 16 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 470,817 metric tons. The expectations ranged from 300,000-600,000. Last week’s export inspections number came in at 446,000 metric tons. Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed that soybeans are 2% planted in the states. Last year at this time we were 5% complete. Weather continues to be a major headline, but we are still early enough in the season that we are not putting a lot of weight into it. The bulls need to see some sales this week outside of the weekly Thursday report.
Technicals: Friday’s bearish close spilled over into the floor open yesterday which has pressed prices near their next level of support. Significant support comes in from 1025 ¾-1027 ¾. This pocket represents the 100-day moving average, previous support in March, and the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the January 12th lows to the March 2nd highs. We believe that this pocket would be a good opportunity for shorts to cover something. If you want to be long the market, this is a spot to try and buy on the first test, looking for a relief rally “pop”. Previous support now becomes resistance, we see that at 1042 ½.
Resistance: 1042 ½**, 1050***, 1060 ¾-1064 ½**, 1077-1078***
Support: 1025 ¾-1027 ¾***, 1013-1016***, 988 ¾-994 ¾****
Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished the session down 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 11 cents for the day. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s export inspections came in at 619,251 metric tons, this was above expectations of 350,000-550,000 metric tons. Last week’s export inspections report came in at 505,000 metric tons. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that winter wheats good/excellent rating came in at 31%, market participants were expecting to see an increase to 32% good/excellent. Weather will continue to be monitored very closely going forward. We are also keeping tabs on the US dollar which appears to be on the verge of a breakout. If the dollar continues to gain strength, we could see that pressure commodities.
Technicals: Wheat futures are trading below technical support this morning which has the bulls back on the edge of their seat. Lower highs and lower lows have been the trend over the last two weeks, and it looks like that is continuing. If the market cannot find buyers on the floor open, we would expect to see the market make a run back towards 459-461 ¾. This pocket represents previous support, along with a key Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance: 486-488 ½****, 494-496 ¾***, 508 ½-510 ½**
Support: 459-461 ¾****, 440 ¼**
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