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Daily Grain Market Update (5.10.18)

Published on: 13:54PM May 10, 2018

CORN (July)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  July corn futures finished the day down 1 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 2 ¾ cents on the session.  Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 5,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s weekly ethanol production report from the EIA showed that production rose to 1,040,000 barrels per day, this was up from 1,032,000 the previous week.  This mornings export sales came in at 785,600 metric tons, this was towards the bottom end of expectations.  There is a USDA report out at 11 am cst today, this will finally give the market some new news to digest.  The average estimate for corn production is 14.091, with estimates ranging from 13.921-14.360.  Carryout for 2017/2018 is expected to come in near 2.176.  Carryout for 2018/2019 is expected to come in at 1.631.  Brazilian corn production estimates range from 83.9-92.0 with the average being 88.6.  Estimates for Argentina’s corn production range from 31.0-33.0 with the average being 32.0.

 

Technicals:  On the technical side of things, little has changed in the last 24 hours as market participants await today’s USDA report.  We remain optimistic on the intermediate term but would more than welcome a short term pull back.  The market tested and held first support yesterday.  First technical support earlier in the week, that remains intact from 397 ¼-399 ¾.  A break and close below this pocket could encourage long liquidation from the funds and press prices down towards 390 ½-393 ¼.  If the market does continue to pull back to this pocket, we would think there is value on the first test (baring any dramatic changes in near term fundamentals).  On the resistance side of things ....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (July)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  July soybeans finished yesterday’s session down 4 cents, this after trading in a range of 13 cents on the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Export sales this morning came in at 632,600 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations.  Today’s USDA report is due out at 11 am, market participants are anxiously awaiting new news to give the market a little more clarity.  Estimates for 2018 production range from 4.11-4.85 with the average being 4.32.  Carryout for 2017/2018 is expected to come in around .546.  Carryout for 2018/2019 is expected to come in near .533.  Brazilian soybean production estimates range from 114.9-119.0 with the average estimate being 116.3.  Argentina’s soybean production is expected to come in at 38.4 with estimates ranging from 36.0-40.0.

 

Technicals:  From the technical side of things, we are in the same spot as yesterday morning, so there are no major changes.  The market continued to hold technical support yesterday which we had outlined as 1010 ¾-1016, a retest to the bottom end of support would likely result to a technical breakdown.  This pocket represents recent lows, a key retracement, the 200-day moving average, and previously important price points.  Below 1010 ¾, there is not a lot of significant support until 988 ¾ 994 ¾.  On the flip side of things, previous support now becomes resistance, we have that as....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (July)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  July wheat futures finished the day down 4 ¾ cents, this after trading in a range of 9 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 4,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals.  This mornings export sales came in at 83,400 metric tons, this was well below the expected range of many analysts.  This mornings USDA report is due out at 11 am and has the potential to put some volatility into the market.  All wheat production estimates range from 1.612-1.860 with the average being 1.774.  2017/2018 carryout for wheat is expected to come in near 1.068.  2018/2018 carryout is expected to come in near .932.

 

Technicals:  The market saw a lot of pressure mid-morning but managed to close off of those lows.  We are relatively neutral but the bears to have a bit of an advantage at this point.  There looks to be a lot of support from 495-500 ¾.  This pocket represents the 50-day moving average and a gap from April 27th; along with other previously important price points.  This would be the spot for bears to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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