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Daily Grain Market Update (5.1.18)

Published on: 12:50PM May 02, 2018

CORN (July)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  July corn futures finished the session up 4 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 6 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 14,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  July corn futures rallied to their highest level since last August as momentum from wheat continued to spill over.  Weather continues to be monitored closely both in the states and Brazil.  Weather has led to delays here to start planting season, but this has yet to be a serious concern.  There has not been a lot of new news across the wires in the last 24 hours.  Weekly ethanol data will be released from the EIA at 9:30am cst this morning.  Export sales will be released tomorrow at the same time as usual. 

 

Technicals:  Corn marked its 7th consecutive higher close yesterday, the longest streak since the end of December.  We have not seen the market rally 8 days for well over a year.  Despite the prolonged rally, the RSI (relative strength index) is only at 65.52.  70 is the line in the sand for being “overbought”.  The market is treading water right in the middle of our resistance pocket from 402 ¾-405 ¼.  If the bulls can get another push, there is not a lot in the way until....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (July)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  July soybean futures finished the day up 2 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 14 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 4,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Soybeans continue to coil with a lack of new news on the wires.  We are continuing to watch soybean meal prices closely as they appear on the verge of a conviction breakout, this would be beneficial to beans.  Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 7,000 meal contracts yesterday.  March soybean crush came in at 182.2 million bushels, this was below the average trade estimate of 183.2 million bushels.  With that said, it is still a record and nearly 14% above last year.  Harvest progress in Argentina has slowed do to excess rain, that doesn’t seem to be a major concern at this point in time though.

 

Technicals:  The market has been posting higher lows and lower highs for some time which leads us to believe that a bigger move is coming in the near future.  The 50-day moving average has been a pivot point for us recently, that comes in at 1051 ½ today.  A conviction close above opens the door to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (July)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  July wheat futures finished the day up 17 ½ cents, trading in a range of 24 cents.  Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 10,500 contracts on the day. 

 

Fundamentals:  The annual crop tour has officially kicked off and we have been hearing yields ranging from 10-55 bushels per acre.  We will continue to keep an eye on this as it will have an influence on price in the near term.  On the macro side of things, we are also keeping an eye on the USD.  Wheat has been gaining significant strength despite the stronger USD.  If the USD takes a breather and pulls back, this could offer additional support to wheat futures.

 

Technicals:  The market has made a nice run recently which has prices rubbing up against the top end the range.  We have outlined resistance as 524 ¼-531 ¾, this represents the march highs.  A break and close above this pocket is a green light for....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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