Daily Grain Market Update (5.8.18)
May 08, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: July corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 5 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 5 ½ cents. Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 15,000 contracts for the day.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s planting progress report showed that we are now 39% planted, this was within the range of most estimates. This was a nice uptick from last weeks 17%, but we are still lagging the 5-year average of 44%. The biggest laggards continue to be the Upper Midwest and the Northern Plains. Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 1,916,461 metric tons, this was well above the top end of the expectations of 1,100,000-1,600,000 metric tons. Despite the better than expected export inspections the market was under pressure on profit taking and producer selling (hedging). We still like corn on an intermediate term basis but feel this is a healthy pullback for the market. We do have a USDA report out on Thursday, we will have estimates out for you in the coming days.
Technicals: We continue to hold our short-term bias at bearish on the idea that we could see some more long liquidation and producer selling at these levels. With that said, the market has fallen back into first support which we have defined as 398 ¼-402 ¾. A break and close below this pocket could accelerate things towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: July soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 23 cents, trading in a range of 29 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 16,000 contracts for the day.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s planting progress report showed that soybeans are now 15% planted, this is up from 5% last week. The range of expectations were anywhere from 10-22% (average 14%); the five-year average for this time is 13%. The weekly export inspections report came in at 533,677 metric tons, this was within the range of estimates of 380,000-650,000 metric tons. Soybeans have found some ground in the overnight and early morning session as the Press Secretary mentioned that China’s Vice Minister will be in Washington next week for trade negotiations. There is a USDA report out on Thursday, we will have estimates for you ahead of time.
Technicals: The chart broke below 1027 on the open yesterday which accelerated the selling down to our next pocket which we had defined as 1013-1016. This pocket represents a key retracement from the years range as well as the 200-day moving average and previously important price points. If the market can hold this on the floor open, we could see the market make a run back at 1027 which will now act as first resistance. A breakdown on the floor open could open the door to our next pocket which doesn’t come in until....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished the day down 12 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 13 ½ cents for the day. Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 7,500 contracts for the day.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that spring wheat is 30% planted, this was inline with most estimates and still well behind the 5-year pace of 51%. Winter wheat crop conditions are at 34% good/excellent; still not great but another week of “improvements”. Weekly export inspections came in at 327,662 metric tons, this was within the range of estimates which came in from 275,000-500,000 metric tons. There is a USDA report out on Thursday, we will continue to compile estimates and make them available to you before the release. On the macro side of things, we are continuing to watch the US Dollar. It has been resilient recently which could start pressuring commodities, including wheat.
Technicals: Wheat futures finished yesterday’s session in the middle of our support pocket from 510 ½-513 ¼ (yesterday’s low was 510 ½). The market made lower lows in the overnight session on light volume, the floor open will be more telling due to more market participation. If the selling pressure continues, the next support pocket is 499-502. In our opinion, the market is....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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