Daily Grain Market Update (6.1.18)1
Jun 11, 2018
Last Week’s Close: December corn futures finished Friday’s session up ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 5 ¼ cents. Futures finished 13 ½ cents lower for the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 102,094 futures from May 29th to June 5th, this shrinks their net long position to just 78,696 futures.
Fundamentals: There is a lot of news on the horizon for the grain markets this week, first off is the weekly export inspections later this morning. After the close we will get an updated look at crop progress. Corn ratings are expected to come in at 78% good/excellent, unchanged from last week. More significant data will be released tomorrow morning with CONAB releasing their estimates for South American production. At 11 am cst we will get an updated look at the USDA supply and demand estimates. We also have the North Korea/US summit which could have big implications on commodity markets too. The cherry on top is the ever-changing weather forecasts.
Technicals: There has been a tremendous amount of technical damage to the chart over the last two weeks, that has brought the RSI (relative strength index) to 32.87, the most oversold level since November. The market is trying to hold ground near the 200-day moving average which comes in at 397 ½ to start the week. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this indicator we could see the market start to repair some of the damage on the chart. Our pivot point this morning comes in from 397 ½-398 ½, a move above that has us looking towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last Week’s Close: November soybean futures finished Friday’s session down 4 ¾ cents, extending the losses for the week to 51 cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 38,413 futures from May 29th-June 5th, this puts their net long position at 65,177 futures.
Fundamentals: As mentioned in the corn section, there is a lot of new news this week which will likely keep the volatility alive. To kick things off we have export inspections later in the morning, then after the close we get an updated look at crop progress. Good/excellent ratings are expected to be near unchanged from last week. Tomorrow CONAB will be releasing their estimates for South American production, following that we will get an updated look at the USDA’s Supply and Demand estimates (we will have our estimates out in tomorrow’s report). We also have the North Korea/US summit which could have big implications on commodity markets too. The cherry on top is the ever-changing weather forecasts.
Technicals: The market has sold off 76 ¾ cents in the past two weeks, leaving behind what looks like a technical graveyard on the chart. The pressure on the market has brought the RSI (relative strength index) down to 32.38 which is just shy of “oversold conditions” but the most oversold since December, when we started to form a near term base. Previous “support” now becomes first resistance to start the week, that comes in from 997 ¾-1002 ¾. On the support side of things, there doesn’t look to be a lot until 967 ½-974. Expect volatility to remain elevated for the first half of the week.
Resistance: 997 ¾-1002 ¾***, 1024 ¾-1025 ½**
Support: 983 ¾**, 967 ½-974****
Last Week’s Close: July wheat futures finished Friday’s session down 4 ¼ cents, shrinking the gains for the week to just ¼ of a cent, after trading in a 33 ¾ cent range. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 2,768 futures from May 29th-June 5th, shrinking their net long position to 23,058 futures.
Fundamentals: Wheat has managed to find more stabilizing fundamentals which has prevented it from rolling over along with corn and beans. Hot and dry weather in the Black Sea region and Australia has helped provide a temporary floor in the market. If that trend starts to change, we could see the market play catchup to corn and beans. The weekly crop progress report will be released after the close, that is expected to show spring wheat ratings near unchanged from last week. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their supply and demand estimates for June, we will have our estimates in tomorrow’s report.
Techncials: The market is consolidating in the middle of a 13-month range as the bulls and the bears wait for new news to give us that breakout or breakdown. The chart looks relatively constructive after holding significant support levels last Monday. The ability to hold support has marked higher lows which could take us to higher highs, a trend we have seen working for the past two months. First technical resistance comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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