Daily Grain Market Update (6.1.18)2
Jun 13, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 9 ½ cents, trading in a range of 11 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 26,000 contracts for the day.
Fundamentals: The market finally managed to find some relief yesterday thanks to a lot of new news in the form of monthly reports from both CONAB and the USDA. CONAB has their Brazilian corn production for 2018/2019 at 85 mmt, this is down from 89.2 previously. USDA showed 2017/2018 ending stocks at 2.102 billion bushels, this was below the average analyst estimate. The USDA had 2018/2019 ending stocks at 1.577 billion bushels, this was also below the average analyst estimate. With these reports behind us, the market will now turn its attention back to weather. July option expiration is next week, this may keep a lid on a significant rally attempt as there are a lot of open calls above the market.
Technicals: The relief rally yesterday was a silver lining for the bulls, but they still have a lot of repair work left to fix on the chart before getting too comfortable. The bulls would like to see consecutive closes above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 2 cents, trading in a range of 16 ½ cents. Funds were estimated to have been flat on the day.
Fundamentals: CONAB released their updated estimates for 2018/2019 Brazilian production. This month’s report came in at 118.1mmt, this is up from the 117 we saw in last months report. We also got updated numbers from the USDA yesterday morning which came in “mixed”. 2017/2018 ending stocks came in at 505 million bushels, this was below the average analyst estimate. 2018/2019 ending stocks came in at 385, this was also below the average analyst estimate. World ending stocks came in slightly higher with South American production getting an uptick. Option expiration is next week which could be playing a role in the recent slide.
Technicals: The market tried to stabilize yesterday afternoon but struggled to hold on to any significant gains. The overnight session opened weaker, dropping prices to their lowest levels since last September. The RSI (relative strength index) is now at 27.53, the most oversold we have seen this market in 14 months. On the technical side of things, the chart is a graveyard. Bears are in total control at the moment, but the market is susceptible to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 20 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 28 cents. Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 15,000 contracts for the day.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s USDA report had all wheat production at 1.827 billion bushels, this was in line with expectations. 2017/2018 ending stocks came in at 1.080 billion bushels, 2018/2019 ending stocks came in at .946 billion bushels, both of which were inline with expectations. World ending stocks came in at 266.16 mmt, near expectations.
Technicals: Wheat futures caught a bid yesterday which has so far helped mark higher lows on the chart, the bulls hope is that it will propel the market to higher highs. First technical resistance today comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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