Daily Grain Market Update (6.21.18)
Jun 21, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 9 ½ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 3,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: There has not been a lot of new news across the wires over the last 24-hours, allowing the market to catch its breath and consolidate after the volatility expansion early on in the week. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production rose by 11,000 barrels per day to 1.064 million barrels per day. Production is now 7.5% over last year. Weekly export sales came in at 505,600 metric tons, below expectations of 850,000-1,450,000 metric tons.
Technicals: Yesterday’s consolidation following a rapid expansion in volatility is what the market need to begin a “healing phase”. First technical resistance comes in from 376 ¼-379 ¼, this pocket represents previous lows. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, we could see additional short covering take us towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session unchanged, trading in a range of 19 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Trade chatter has died down, for the time being, allowing the market to consolidate and catch its breath. Though a lot of the bearish headlines have been digested into the market, new headlines could spark another round of emotional trading. Weather forecasts look favorable for growing conditions for key growing areas. Export sales this morning came in at 529,300 metric tons, towards the low end of estimates of 400,000-1,000,000 metric tons.
Technicals: yesterday’s 19 cent range seemed extremely tame relative to Tuesday’s session. The consolidation is healthy for the market and what traders want to see. First technical support was tested and held yesterday, that came in at 899 ½. The bulls have defended the $9 handle again in the early morning session but will want to see some more volume come in on the buy-side when the floor opens up. If the bulls can achieve a close above 921 ¾-923 ½ we could see additional short covering take us closer to...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: Wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 9 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 15 ¼ cents. Funds were buyers of 5,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: New news has been hard to come by for wheat which has led to a choppy trade. Continued concerns over potential yield damaging weather in areas like the Black Sea and Australia have provided the market support despite the immense pressure in the broader grain complex. Export sales this morning came in at 461,600 metric tons, towards the top end of expectations from 250,000-500,000 metric tons.
Technicals: The market tested and continued to hold technical support on a closing basis, we had outlined this as 477 ½-483. This pocket represents a key retracement on the year and the 200-day moving average. The market is making a run at our first resistance pocket, we have that coming in from 497-499 ¾. This pocket represents the 100-day moving average and a gap from June 15th. This would be an area for bears to consider selling and recent buyers to reduce exposure. We have our bias as neutral still but will be looking for slightly higher prices to move that closer to bearish.
Resistance: 497-499 ¾***, 507 ½**, 523***
Support: 477 ½-483***, 459-467 ½****
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