Daily Grain Market Update (6.25.18)
Jun 25, 2018
Last Week’s Close: December corn futures traded 6 ¼ cents lower for the week, in a range of 23 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 45,213 contracts from June 12th-June 19th, expanding their net short position to 57,451 futures.
Fundamentals: Corn prices are starting the trading week on softer ground as good growing conditions keep a lid on a short covering rally. We will get an updated look at crop progress after the close, analysts are looking for a good to excellent rating to be near 78%, well above the average for this time of year. The USDA will release their quarterly stocks and planted acres report on Friday. Early estimates are for planted acres is 88.56 million, up from 88.03 in the March report. Quarterly stocks estimates are coming in near 5.268 million bushels. We would not be surprised to see some position squaring ahead of the report. Trade chatter continues to linger over the market but is likely largely priced in.
Technicals: The market spent the back half of last weeks trade consolidating after an explosion of volatility on Tuesday. The market is treading water near our technical resistance pocket which we have defined as 376 ¼-379 ¼ (previous support, now resistance). If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, we believe we could see short covering take us another 10 cents higher. On the support side of things, the bulls need to defend....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last Week’s Close: November soybean futures traded 11 ¼ cents lower for the week, in a range of 74 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 27,142 futures from June 12th-June 19th, making them net short 27,037 futures.
Fundamentals: Trade tensions continue to be the dominating catalyst in near term price discovery, which will likely keep volatility heightened. On top of trade concerns, we have seen ideal growing conditions for a lot of high producing areas. The USDA will release their weekly crop progress report this afternoon, analysts are looking for a good/excellent rating near 73%, well above the five-year average for this time of year. Traders and other market participants will be looking forward to Friday’s quarterly stocks and planted acres report. Early estimates for planted acre is near 89.69 million acres, up from the 88.98 in the March report. Quarterly stocks estimates are coming in near 1.225 million bushels.
Technicals: Last week’s wide ranging, volatile, and emotional trade has put some of the fundamentals and technicals on the back burner. In the back half of the week we saw prices start to consolidate, beginning the process of repairing the technical damage. The bulls have done a good job over the last few sessions in defending the technically and psychologically significant support pocket from 898 ½-900 ¾, with that said, they don’t want to spend anymore time against it. The bulls need to see a close above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last Week’s Close: July wheat futures traded 10 ¼ cents lower for the week, in a range of 31 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 29,996 futures from June 12th-June 19th, putting them net short 4,861 futures.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures managed to hold their own in the face of the blood bath in soybeans and corn last week. Hot and dry weather in areas of the Black Sea and Australia have some concerned that it could lead to loss in production. Winter wheat harvest here in the States continues to roll on, this afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show that the US is now 36% harvested, a nice uptick from last week but still behind the average pace for this time of year. Early estimates for Friday’s planted acres and quarterly stocks reports are coming out. Estimates for all wheat acres are near 47.12 million acres, up from 47.34 in the March report. Quarterly stocks are expected to come in near 1.091 million bushels.
Technicals: The market traded technically sound last week, chopping around in between some pivotal technical levels. On the resistance side, we had listed 497-499 ¾ as a 3-star level, this pocket represented the gap from June 15th, the 100-day moving average, and is just shy of the psychologically significant $5.00 handle. The failure to achieve a close above keeps the bears in control here, a close below 477 ½ opens the door for....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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