Daily Grain Market Update (7.11.18)
Jul 11, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished the day 7 cents lower, trading in a range of 10 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 14,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: The USDA announced a flash sale of 113,000 metric tons to Egypt yesterday morning, this was not enough keep the market from making new contract lows. The market has been softer in the overnight and early morning session as another 200 billion in tariffs is set, leaving the possibility for additional retaliatory tariffs. Sure, the retaliatory tariffs would likely have little to do with corn, but the broader implications on Ag has led to spill over pressure. Thursday’s USDA report will draw attention, but we feel will have little impact on short term pricing. Early estimates for yields are 174.9 bushels/acre. We will have all the estimated compiled for tomorrows report. Weather will arguably be the key catalyst over the next month, if key areas in the corn belt start to dry up we could see a premium come back into the market.
Technicals: The market has moved from “no mans land” to the bottom end of the range, making new contract lows in the overnight session. Bulls need to get something going in the back half of the week to put an end to the buyers strike, a failure to do so could lead to a prolonged bleed out. The bears are in full control until the market closes above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: Soybean futures finished yesterdays session unchanged, trading in a range of 18 ½ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 6,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: The market performed relatively well yesterday, all things considered. News after the close that the US is ready to implement another 200 billion in tariffs, concerns over retaliatory measures gapped grains lower in the overnight session with little reprieve. It’s very clear that the market is still susceptible to headline risk with regards to trade. Thursday’s USDA report is not expected to hold a lot of market moving gems but could get the market moving in this current environment. Early estimates for yields are 48.6 bushels/acre. We will have all the estimated compiled for tomorrows report. Weather will arguably be the key catalyst over the next few months, if key areas in the corn belt start to dry up we could see a premium come back into the market.
Technicals: The technical picture hasn’t changed much over the last 24 hours; the chart still looks terrible. 860 was support yesterday, this was previous lows and a breakout point from Friday, the news from China after the close has prompted prices to violate that technical area which will likely make for an interesting floor open. With prices at these levels, the market is in uncharted territory. The bulls need to defend....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 15 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 19 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures rolled over yesterday as the market ran out of bullish headlines to break the market out above technical resistance. The market is lower in the early morning trade as concerns continue to linger with regards to global trade in the broader Ag sector. Thursday’s USDA report is expected to show all wheat production near 1.858 billion bushels.
Technicals: The market broke down yesterday, opening the door for another leg lower, our next significant support pocket comes in from 475 ¾-480. A break and close below could accelerate things further and press prices down towards the contract lows of 450 ½. If the bulls can regain ground above previous support, we could see additional short covering come into the market, butt the bears remain in control until a close out above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Sign up for a free trial of 1 or all 5 of our daily Blue Line Express commodity reports!
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.