Daily Grain Technicals (8.2.18)
Aug 03, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 1 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 8 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 11,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Corn started caught a nice mid yesterday on the back of a intraday limit move in the wheat market. Rumors were circulating yesterday that the Ag Minister of Ukraine said they would limit wheat exports, they walked back the rhetoric which put the pop in volatility as traders and other market participants scrambled to figure out what was going on. Weekly export sales yesterday came in at 1,278,147 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations. Weather will continue to be monitored but will be a diminishing factor. Next Friday’s USDA/WASDE report will likely be a big focus into next week’s trade.
Technicals: The market continues to test our support pocket from 379 ¾-382 ¼, which may be a caution flag for the bull camp. If the market ends the week below this pocket, it could set the stage for next weeks trade. On the resistance side, we continue to keep an eye on....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session 3 cents lower, trading in a range of 18 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Soybeans saw follow through weakness yesterday but managed to stabilize towards the back half of the day as the bulls and bears continue their tug of war match around the psychologically significant $9.00 handle. Yesterday’s weekly export sales came in at 636,954 metric tons, this was within the expectations from 450,000-1,200,000 metric tons. Weather will continue to be monitored but will be a diminishing factor. Next Friday’s USDA/WASDE report will likely be a big focus into next week’s trade.
Technicals: The market broke down below first support and tested our 3-star pocket from 881 ½-885 ¼. That pocket was again tested in the overnight session and again held. The bulls do not want to see another test of support. Each time a pocket is tested, it becomes less significant. On the resistance side of things, 915 ¾-920 ½ is the pocket the bulls want to see a close above, if they can achieve this we would expect to see the market run towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 2 ½ cents, trading in a range of 34 cents (not a typo). Funds were estimated buyers of 8,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: The big news yesterday morning was that Ukraine was going to limit exports, which sent prices a tick away from limit up. Shortly thereafter, they walked the statement back and the market had erased all of the gains. This may not be the last time a headline like this makes an appearance so be sure to manage risk appropriately. Weekly exports came in at 382,452 metric tons, this was towards the top end of expectations from 250,000-400,000 metric tons.
Technicals: The technicals remain strong, but they clash with our fundamental outlook, so our bias remains neutral. The market took out the May 29th highs which ignited a “whoosh” higher towards the psychologically significant $6.00 handle. Significant support continues to be 550-553 ¾, if the bulls cannot defend this pocket to round out the week, we could see that set the tone for a weaker start to next weeks trade. On the resistance side....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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