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Daily Grain Technicals and Fundamentals (12.3.18)

Published on: 14:06PM Dec 03, 2018

Grain Express

 

December 3, 2018

 
 

Corn (March)

 

Last Week’s Close: March corn futures finished Friday’s session up 3 ½ cents, extending gains for the week to 6 ½ cents. Futures traded in a 10 ¾ cent range through the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 21,202 futures through November 27th, expanding their net short position to 31,054 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  The 90-day Truce on tariffs gave the market a boost on the Sunday night open, but a lot of those gains have slipped away into the early morning trade.  We expect to see a volatile session, particularly on the floor open when we will get more participation.  We will me most interested in money flow this week as supply/demand fundamentals won’t likely change much.

 

Technicals:  In our Weekend Update that we sent out yesterday afternoon, we stated that our first resistance pocket comes in from 382-385 ¼, that was an excellent opportunity for bulls to reduce exposure and shorts to dip the toes in (the overnight high was 385 ¼).  On the support side of things, our first meaningful pocket comes in from 376 ¾-378 ½.  This pocket represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with a key retracement and the gap from the Sunday night open. 

 

Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 382-385 ¼***, 390-390 ½****

Support: 376 ¾-378 ½***, 366 ¾-368 ½****

 

To get our full report emailed to you each morning, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

Soybeans (January)

 

Last Week’s Close: January soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 6 cents, extending gains for the week to 12 ½ cents. Futures traded in a 39 ½ cent range through the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 6,124 futures through November 27th, expanding their net short position to 59,303 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  The market opened sharply higher last night, but those gains have been nearly cut in half as we head into the early morning “intermission”.  The 90-day truce on tariffs is certainly a positive note for the market, but some suggest it may be kicking the can down the road.  The premium injected is not because the market believes that something was done, it is because the probability of something good happening increases while the probability of a longer stalemate decreases.  There is no “fix-it switch”, and that is why market participants need to keep their expectations in check. 

 

Technicals:  The gap higher last night was the highest price printed since the first half of August.  First resistance going forward comes in from 919-926 ½, this pocket represents the lower highs posted in August.  The more significant resistance level comes in at 932 ¾, this represents the July 31st highs.  On the support side of things, all eyes will be on 893 ¼-897 ½, this pocket represents the gap from last night and other previously important price points. 

 

Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 919-926 ½**, 932-935 ¼***

Support: 906 ¼**, 893 ¼-897 ½****, 876-879 ½***

 

To get our full report emailed to you each morning, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

Wheat (March)

 

Last Week’s Close: March wheat futures finished Friday’s session up 7 ¾ cents, extending gains for the week to 9 cents. Futures traded in a 15 ¼ cent range through the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 898 futures through November 27th, narrowly trimming their net short position to 38,744 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat futures also benefited from the positive vibes coming out of the G-20 summit over the weekend, though much of that euphoria has subsided as we head into the early morning intermission.  We will keep a close eye on the other grain markets today as they will likely have some sort of influence on price action in wheat.  We are also watching the U.S. dollar which is clawing back losses from the overnight session.

 

Technicals:  In our Weekend Update that we sent out yesterday afternoon, we stated that our first resistance pocket comes in from 525-529, as with our corn technicals, this was an excellent opportunity for longs to reduce and shorts to dip their toes in (the high overnight was 529 ½).  First technical support to start the week comes in from 515 ½-519 ¼.  If the bulls can defend this level in the first half of the week, we could see the market continue to work higher.  We still like the long KC/short Chicago wheat spread for the time being. 

 

Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 525-529***, 537 ¾-543 ¼**

Support: 515 ½-519 ¼***, 499-503 ¾***

 

To get our full report emailed to you each morning, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

 

 

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